SEMINARS

FALL 2008

Date

Title

Speaker

Fri 9/5/08

Terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon and climate change

Richard Houghton

Fri 10/10/08

Permafrost carbon and climate feedbacks in a warmer world

Ted Schuur

SPRING 2008

Thurs 2/28/08

Introduction of multi-model ensembles and downscaling for regional risk assessment of climate change

Koji Dairaku

Mon 4/21/08

Strategies to coordinate economic development, energy use, and emission control in China

Ji Zou

Thurs 4/24/08

Hydrology in an era of global change

Dennis Lettenmaier

Wed 5/7/08

Energy and environmental policies in India

Leena Srivastava

Wed 5/21/08

Organizing carbon capture and storage deployment: Returns to scale for the coupled technological system

Jeff Bielicki

FALL 2007

9/14/07

Recent trends in terrestrial water storage from the GRACE mission

Jay Famiglietti

9/26/07

Toward the characterization of snowpack from space-borne satellite measurements: A multi-frequency multi-scale data assimilation approach

Steve Margulis

10/25/07

Changing views of a changing Arctic: Climate, element cycling, and vegetation in northern Alaska since the 1970s

Gus Shaver

11/29/07

Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation: Science meets policy

Ruth DeFries

12/6/07

Macroecology: Do mechanisms matter?

John Harte

SPRING 2007

1/12/07

Variability in air-sea CO2 flux in the Ross Sea, Antarctica: An ecosystem model analysis

Kevin Arrigo

1/26/07

What's new at the Ecological Society of America?

Clifford Duke

2/13/07

Impacts of changing land use on subsurface water resources in semiarid regions

Bridget Scanlon

3/8/07

Climate Change 2007: Key findings of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change

Gabi Hegerl

3/22/07

Climate and plants in California: Past, present, and future

David Ackerly

3/30/07

Is carbon cycle science ready for the financial big leagues?

Steve Running

4/5/07

The late quaternary paleoenvironments of the South American tropics

Edgardo Latrubesse

4/11/07

Global Warming: Some Science and Solutions

Rob Jackson

4/19/07

Agricultural intensification in the Yaqui Valley, Mexico: will it spare land for nature?
(2007 Oosting Lecture)

Pam Matson

4/27/07

The influence of tree species on biogeochemistry: Interactions among litter chemistry, earthworms and microbes

Sarah Hobbie

5/3/07

Global warming and water availability

Christopher Milly

FALL 2006

Date

Title

Speaker

9/14/06

Ocean Wave and Tidal Energy Conversion

Roger Bedard

9/28/06

Spatial and temporal controls of carbon cycling in arid and semiarid ecosystems

Osvaldo E. Sala

10/27/06

The manner and magnitude by which trees impact the hydrological cycle

Todd E. Dawson

11/3/06

Sunshine, waterbugs and real estate: unique controls on litter decomposition in arid ecosystems

Amy Austin

11/28/06

Using micrometeorological techniques to determine the impact of land use change on "Green water": Examples from South Africa

Caren Jarmain

12/1/06

The challenge of representing nitrogen cycling in global biogeochemical models

Lars Hedin

SPRING 2006

1/17/06

Taking your story to the next level

Julie Wakefield

1/19/06

Ecosystem consequences of insect defoliation in the Appalachians

Phil Townsend

2/9/06

The role of dry-season orographic precipitation in the cloud forests of Monteverde, Costa Rica

Andrew Guswa

2/23/06

McMurdo dry valleys long-term ecological research: The response of Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

W. Berry Lyons

3/2/06

Disturbance and Invasive Species in Tropical Rain Forests: New Ecological Insights from Remote Sensing

Greg Asner

3/23/06

Earth System Modeling at the Intersection of Science and Policy

Hiram Levy

4/21/06

A Moral Climate? The Ethics of Global Warming

Michael Northcott

5/19/06

Water vapour and carbon dioxide fluxes from pine forest

John B. Stewart

FALL 2005

9/8/05

C and N cycling in grasslands of Argentina and Uruguay: livestock introduction and its consequences

Gervasio Piñeiro

10/27/05

What are the most important factors for climate—carbon cycle coupling?

S. C. Wofsy

11/1/05

Interactive impacts of vegetation on hydrology and soil chemistry: The grassland afforestation experiment

Esteban Jobbágy

11/3/05

New insights into the carbon cycle of Amazonia from a forest plot network

Yadvinder Mahli

11/21/05

Aerosol effects on climate: Does strong aerosol cooling in the past imply a hotter future?

Meinrat Andreae

SPRING 2005

2/17/05

Selective Logging in the Brazilian Amazon: Biogeochemical Effects and Quantitative Damage Estimation Using Satellite Remote Sensing

Michael Keller

3/24/05

The role of terrestrial ecosystem processes in determining patterns of terrestrial carbon fluxes and atmospheric CO2 concentrations: Results from a regional-scale coupled atmosphere-ecosystem model

Paul Moorcroft

4/5/05

Climate Change in the U.S. Congress: An Update on Congressional Action and How Science Informs (or Doesn't Inform) the Debate

Manik Roy

4/7/05

Putting a Human Face on Science (Getting Media Attention for Environmental Topics)

Michael Tennesen

4/21/05

Catchment (water shed) hydrology research in South Africa: past, present and future

David Le Maitre

5/3/05

Looking for carbon in all the wrong places: Carbon dynamics in the Rocky Mountains

Dave Schimel

6/23/05

Grassland afforestation effects on water and salts dynamics

Marcelo Nosetto

FALL 2004

9/9/04

Forest Responses to Elevated Atmospheric CO2: Contrasting Patterns of Carbon Allocation in Oak Ridge and Duke FACE Experiments

Richard J. Norby

11/4/04

Linking genome, physiological, and ecosystem responses to rainfall variability in a mesic grassland

Phil Fay

11/11/04

The Importance of Comparing Apples to Apples: Matching MODIS to Flux Towers

Hans Peter Schmid

11/16/04

Can Markets Protect the Climate? Prospects for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading in the US and Europe

Peter Zapfel and Tim Profeta

11/30/04

Projecting climate change impacts on species and ecosystems: Perspectives from the southern Hemisphere

Guy F Midgley

SPRING 2004

2/13/04

Causes and Consequences of Plant Functional Diversity: Biotic Effects on Ecosystem Processes and Responses to Global Change

Peter B. Reich

2/19/04

Global Change and Ecosystem Models: Problems, Products and Potential

Steven McNulty

3/4/04

Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions in the "Greenhouse" Climate of the Eocene and a comparison with other paleoclimates

Matthew Huber

3/18/04

How to Solve the Problem of Greenhouse Warming

Steve Pacala

3/19/04

Forest Inventory Data Falsify Ecosystem Models of CO2 Fertilization

Steve Pacala

3/24/04

On the Coupled Geomorphological and Ecohydrological Organization of River Basins

Ignacio Rodriguez-Iturbe

4/8/04

Anthropogenic Nitrogen Mobilization Drivers, Consequences and Opportunities for Action

James Galloway

4/22/04

Regime Shifts in the Northern Rockies: A key to understanding climate-fire-human interactions

Lisa Graumlich

4/26/04

Rolling Easements and Other Free-Market Solutions to Sea Level Rise

Jim Titus

FALL 2003

10/1/03

Analysing observed changes in climate extremes

Lisa Alexander

10/8/03

Assessing Uncertainty in Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction

Montserrat Fuentes

10/15/03

The Conquest of North American Forests by Alien Insects and Pathogens: Case History of the Population Biology and Management of Gypsy Moth Spread

Andrew "Sandy" Liebhold

10/29/03

Fire and the global carbon cycle

James T. Randerson

11/5/03

Ecological Forecasting, Coupling Ecosystem Hydrodynamics and Carbon Transport, and Ocean Climate Modeling: Updates from the First Three CGC Working Groups

Mike Dietze, Satish Govindarajan, John Albertson, and Susan Lozier

11/12/03

Transgenic pines at the interface of private and public lands: A case study in landscape genomics

Claire G. Williams

SPRING 2003

1/30/03

Life in Marine Sediments: Probing the Limits of Earth’s Deep Biosphere

David C. Smith

3/27/03

The Atlantic thermohaline circulation and its role in climate variability and change

Tom Delworth

4/3/03

The optimal stability window and marine ecosystem variability in the strait of Georgia, British Columbia

Ann Gargett

4/10/03

Advanced technology paths to global climate stability: energy for a greenhouse planet

Marty Hoffert

4/16/03

The NAO and the Gulf Stream: Basin scale interactions to regional scale variability

Avijit Gangopadhyay

4/17/03

Climate Variations and Change: What can we say with confidence?

Thomas R. Karl

4/23/03

Ocean Modeling: Linking physical and biological processes

Ping-Tung Shaw

4/23/03

The Art and Role of Climate Modelling

Hans von Storch

5/1/03

Aerosols and Climate

John Seinfeld

5/1/03

Remote Influences on South Americal Climate Variability

Andrew W. Robertson

FALL 2002

9/5/02

Measuring land-atmosphere exchange in complex terrain

John Finnigan

10/17/02

Tropospheric ozone as a climate gas and air pollutant: the case for controlling methane

Daniel J. Jacob

10/25/02

Responses of coastal wetlands to rising sea level

James T. Morris

10/30/02

The prospects for a fragmented climate regime

Henry D. Jacoby

11/13/02

Interpreting Woody Plant Richness from Seasonal Ratios of Photosynthesis across Oregon

Richard Waring

11/14/02

Genomic response to ecological change: finding the lost pines

Claire G. Williams

SPRING 2002

1/17/02

A study of the response of ocean biology to future climate change

Jorge Sarmiento

1/24/02

Understanding Historical and Predicting Future Climate Change

Simon Tett

2/21/02

Cycles and epidemic waves in measles dynamics

Ottar Bjornstad

3/21/02

Nuclear vs. Renewables vs. Decarbonized Fossil Fuels in the Race to Zero Emissions

Robert H. Williams

4/4/02

Detection of anthropogenic climate change

Gabi Hegerl

4/18/02

Lightning and Climate: The Water Vapor Connection

Colin Price


FALL 2008

Friday, Sept 5
French Family Science Center, room 2237
1:15-2:30 pm

Terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon and climate change
Richard Houghton
Senior Scientist, Woods Hole Research Center

Co-sponsored with the University Program in Ecology seminar series.

Terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon are difficult to measure over the surface of the earth at any scale. In fact, terrestrial ecosystems appear twice in the global carbon budget. First, they are a (net) source of carbon from land-use change (including both deforestation, reforestation, and afforestation), accounting for about 20% of total anthropogenic emissions. And, second, they are also a (net) carbon sink that offsets approximately 30% of total anthropogenic emissions. This terrestrial sink is determined by difference: the sink is needed to balance total emissions of carbon (from fossil fuels and land-use change) with total 'known' sinks (atmosphere and oceans). Errors in any of these four terms directly affect the magnitude of this 'residual' terrestrial carbon sink. The sink has never been measured globally, and its magnitude, location, and causes are unknown. Most ecologists have assumed that the terrestrial carbon sink is the result of physiological responses to environmental changes (e.g., increased CO2, increased N availability, climatic change), but a major portion of it may be the result of changes in forest age structure as a result of past disturbances (both natural and human-induced) and continuing recovery (carbon accumulation).

Understanding the causes of this residual terrestrial sink is important for predicting future climate. There is no guarantee that the sink will continue. Has it already begun to change? A key global indicator of a change in this annual carbon sink is the airborne fraction: the fraction of total anthropogenic carbon emissions (fossil fuels and land-use change) that remains in the atmosphere. The long-term airborne fraction has been remarkably constant over the last 50 years, but there is recent evidence for an increase; i.e., the annual carbon sink in terrestrial ecosystems may be declining.

Dr. Richard A. Houghton is Deputy Director and Senior Scientist at the Woods Hole Research Center in Falmouth, Massachusetts. The Center in as independent, nonprofit institute focused on environmental science, policy, and education. Trained as an ecologist, Dr. Houghton has studied the interactions of terrestrial ecosystems with the global carbon cycle and climate change for nearly 30 years. His area of expertise has been documentation of changes in land use and determination of historic and current sources and sinks of carbon resulting directly from human activity. He has participated the IPCC Assessments of Climate Change and the IPCC Special Report on Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry. Dr. Houghton received a Ph.D. in ecology from the State University of New York at Stony Brook in 1979 and has worked as a research scientist at Brookhaven National Laboratory in New York and the Marine Biological Laboratory in Woods Hole, Massachusetts. He has been at the Woods Hole Research Center since 1987, serving for two years (1993-1994) as a visiting senior scientist at NASA headquarters in Washington, D.C.

Friday, October 10
French Family Science Center, room 2237
1:15-2:30 pm

Permafrost carbon and climate feedbacks in a warmer world
Ted Schuur
Assistant Professor of Ecosystem Ecology, Department of Botany, University of Florida

Co-sponsored with the University Program in Ecology seminar series.

Abstract and bio forthcoming

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SPRING 2008

Thursday, Feb 28
A-158 LSRC
4:00-5:15 pm

Introduction of multi-model ensembles and downscaling for regional risk assessment of climate change
Koji Dairaku
Researcher, Storm, Flood, and Landslide Research Department, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Japan

Co-sponsored with the Pratt School of Engineering

Climate change and the threats of extremes to human life and natural ecosystems constitute a fundamental concern. Reliable regional climate change projection and improved impact assessment sufficient for the application to impact assessment and adaptation studies are increasingly required by the policy community.

In Japan, the climate research project(S-5) has just started (FY2007-2011) for "Getting a feel for climate change". As one of the research activities, we will try downscaling study in Japan/Asian region. I would like to introduce the downscaling project and a part of our preliminary activities.

Monday, Apr 21
A-158 LSRC
4:00-5:15 pm

Strategies to coordinate economic development, energy use, and emission control in China
Ji Zou
Vice Dean, School of Environment and Natural Resources
Head, Department of Environmental Economics and Management
Renmin University of China

Serving 20% of the world population, experiencing a high, lasting growth rate in the past three decades and developing increasingly closer international trade and investment ties, the Chinese economy and its society have had, and will continue to face, environmental and energy challenges which have been both local and global concerns. This presentation begins by highlighting several key development concerns in China which are regarded as driving forces for the current and future features of the environment and energy situation in China. Then it will consider both Business-As-Usual (BAU) and Action-taking Scenarios on changes in energy use and CO2 emission, based on modeling exercises and latest estimations of some different parameters in order to predict the potentials of emission reduction and energy saving. This presentation assumes that technology changes in the coming decades in China may lead to significant emission reduction against BAU scenario, and thus the final solution for both global warming and local environmental quality improvement. Based on this assumption, the presentation assesses several technological options in such energy/emission intensive sectors as power, transport, housing, cement, ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, chemical products, and petroleum refining in terms of emission reduction of GHGs and local pollutants, cost, and maturity of technologies. Finally, this presentation will explore a framework for integrating the strategic and policy objectives from three dimensions of development: energy, global warming, and local environmental concerns. Possible directions and further work based on this discussion will be identified.

Professor Zou was awarded a B.S. in environmental engineering (1984), an M.S. in Engineering Economics (1990) at Tsinghua University, and a Ph.D. in environmental and resources economics (1997) at RUC. He was a visiting scholar for London School of Economics and Political Sciences in 1995~1996, Resources for the Future in 1995, and John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University in 2007. Professor Zou has worked in such areas as energy and climate policies with technology changes as focus, and sustainable urban planning. He has been nominated as a delegate of China for UN Climate Talks since 2000 and worked as a lead author of Working Group III of IPCC. In 2007, he and his team joined a research on Economics of Win-Win Energy Policies in China sponsored by The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and in cooperation with Woods Hole Research Center.

At this time, Professor Zou is leading a study on China's national strategy on energy and greenhouse gases control jointly sponsored by State Environmental Protection Administration (SEPA, now Ministry of Environment) and Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE). He is also working on the design of China's proposal on technological cooperation in the context of international regime of climate beyond 2012.

Thursday, Apr 24
A-158 LSRC
3:30-4:30 pm

(come early for refreshments at 3:00-3:30)

Hydrology in an era of global change
Dennis Lettenmaier
Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Hydrology Surface Water Hydrology Research Group

Water is essential for human life. Since the earliest civilizations, man has attempted to provide stable and secure sources of freshwater. This quest has dealt, until quite recently, with attempting to buffer the effects of what is often termed "natural variability" in the land surface branch of the water cycle, and especially streamflow. We now face challenges that require that we recognize that the realm of "natural variability" in the water cycle both affects, and is affected by, man's activities, through at least three agents of change. The first is land cover and land use - much of the global land surface has now been affected by man's activities. Examples include growth of agriculture, harvest and management of forests (including fire suppression), and growth of urban areas, among others. The second agent of change is climate - it is now increasingly apparent that man's activities have and will continue to change the water cycle. The third is water management - construction of impoundments and withdrawals for consumptive and other uses, as well as diversion of major rivers, increasingly has altered the land surface, and perhaps atmospheric, water cycles. I discuss examples of these three agents of change both in the U.S. and internationally, and outline some of the scientific challenges in predicting water cycle variations that go beyond the traditional hydrologic view of characterizing natural variability.

Dennis Lettenmaier received his B.S. in Mechanical Engineering (summa cum laude) at the University of Washington in 1971, his M.S. in Civil, Mechanical, and Environmental Engineering at the George Washington University in 1973, and his Ph.D. at the University of Washington in 1975. He joined the University of Washington faculty in 1976. In addition to his service at the University of Washington, he spent a year as visiting scientist at the U.S. Geological Survey in Reston, VA (1985-86) and was the Program Manager of NASA's Land Surface Hydrology Program at NASA Headquarters in 1997-98. He is a member of the American Geophysical Union, the American Water Resources Association, the American Meteorological Society, and the American Society of Civil Engineers. He was a recipient of ASCE's Huber Research Prize in 1990, and the American Geophysical Union's Hydrology Section Award in 2000. He is a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union and American Meteorological Society, and is the author of over 100 journal articles. He was the first Chief Editor of the American Meteorological Society Journal of Hydrometeorology, and is currently an Associate Editor of Water Resources Research. His areas of research interest are large scale hydrology, hydrologic aspects of remote sensing, and hydrology-climate interactions.

Wednesday, May 7
A-158 LSRC
3:00-4:15 pm

(light refreshments at 2:30-3:00)

Energy and environmental policies in India
Leena Srivastava
Executive Director of The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), India

Dr Leena Srivastava is Executive Director, TERI and Senior Vice President of TERI-NA (The Energy and Resources Institute, North America), Washington, DC, USA. She has been the Dean, Faculty of Policy and Planning, TERI University, since June 2000 and she teaches doctoral courses in Energy Policy and Planning and Infrastructure Economics, and she was the Vice-President, TERI-NA from November 1992 to January 1994.  Dr. Srivastava has a number of publications to her credit and is on the editorial boards of several international journals dealing issues related to energy and the environment.  She serves on the Research Advisory Committee of IGES (the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan), the International Advisory Board of the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Germany and is a member of the Scientific Steering Committee of the IHDP-IT Programme (International Human Dimensions Programme - Industrial Transformation). She was the member of the Expert Committee to formulate Energy Policy set up by the Planning Commission, Government of India, and was a Coordinating Lead Author for Working Group III of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Dr. Srivastava is currently the Anchor for Sustainable Development and Climate Change for the Fourth Assessment Report.

Wednesday, May 21
A-247 LSRC
12:00-1:15 pm

Organizing carbon capture and storage deployment: Returns to scale for the coupled technological system
Jeff M. Bielicki
Public Policy Ph.D. student, Harvard University, and Research Fellow with the Energy Technology Innovation Policy Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School of Government

Jeff will present his work-in-progress on the returns to scale for CCS deployment. He will introduce an innovation in geospatial optimization methodology for infrastructure planning and deployment, the interaction of the returns to scale for each technological component of the CCS system and for the entire system, and a number of policy relevant questions such as the choice of where within a potential storage basin to focus on site-specific reservoir characterization, where to locate injection sites, and where to place trunk distribution pipelines.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has the potential to dramatically reduce the atmospheric accumulation of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted from human activities while simultaneously serving as a bridging technology to less fossil-dependent energy systems. To do so, a system of interlinked technologies that captures CO2 from sources and transports it to geologic storage reservoirs into which the captured CO2 is injected must be deployed at a considerable scale. This technological coupling determines the returns to scale for the entire carbon capture and storage system and suggests how, given the spatial distribution of sources and potential reservoirs, CCS activities should be organized.

Jeff will present his work-in-progress on understanding the returns to scale for CCS deployment. The talk will introduce an innovation in geospatial optimization methodology for infrastructure planning and deployment, the interaction of the returns to scale for each technological component of the CCS system and how they couple together to determine the returns to scale for the entire system, and a number of policy relevant questions such as the choice of where within a potential storage basin to focus on site-specific reservoir characterization, where to locate injection sites, and where to place trunk distribution pipelines.

Jeff Bielicki is a research fellow with the Energy Technology Innovation Policy Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, where he is also a PhD student in public policy. Jeff researches technological innovation and deployment at the nexus of engineering, environmental, and social systems. He is currently focusing on a number of issues pertaining to the scale and implications of the deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as it couples the organization of CO2-emitting sources with the organization of amenable CO2 storage geology. His recent work includes the impact of CCS on the location of electric power generation, the viability of permanent CO2 storage in deep sea sediment, and the returns to scale for CCS. Before coming to Harvard, Jeff was a mechanical engineer at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (outside Chicago, Ill.) and the University of Rochester University for Laser Energetics (Rochester, N.Y.). He has published pieces on solar energy and antiproton production. Through his participation in the Young Scientists Summer Program, Jeff was a member of the Transitions to New Technologies program at the International Institute for Systems Analysis (IIASA). He was also a Santa Fe Institute research scholar at the complex systems summer school, and a Crump Fellow. He holds a BSME (Valparaiso University), an MBA (University of Chicago), and an MPA (Harvard University). He is a member of Tau Beta Pi (engineering honor society), Sigma Xi (scientific research society), the American Society for Mechanical Engineers, the American Economic Association, and the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics. Jeff is an improvisational comedian, a baseball player, and a student of Tae Kwon Do.

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FALL 2007

Friday, Sept 14
Levine Science Research Center, room B101
11:40 am

Recent Trends in Terrestrial Water Storage from the GRACE Mission
Jay Famiglietti
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine

Co-sponsored with the Water Forum seminar series.

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission offers a new opportunity to monitor changes in total water storage (combined snow, surface water, soil moisture and groundwater) from the large river basin (>200,000 km2) to the global scale, and at monthly and longer timescales. In this presentation I will explain how the GRACE satellites can provide hydrologic information on water storage anomalies and storage changes, as well as the implications for terrestrial and global hydrology. These include new information on spatial and temporal variations in water storage changes, the emergence of short-term trends in storage, and water balance closure at multiple scales. Examples of recent work on GRACE-based estimates of regional and global discharge, groundwater storage changes and mass changes in Earth’s land, ocean and ice reservoirs will be presented.

Prof. Jay Famiglietti is a hydrologist on the faculty in the UCI Department of Earth System Science and holds a joint appointment in Civil and Environmental Engineering. He teaches courses in terrestrial and global hydrology, as well as introductory Earth System Science. His research group uses satellite remote sensing to track water availability on land and has been working for many years towards improving hydrological prediction in global climate models. Before joining the faculty at UCI in 2001, Prof. Famiglietti was an Assistant and Associate Professor in the Department of Geological Sciences at the University of Texas at Austin, and was the Associate Director of the UT Environmental Science Institute. Prof. Famiglietti currently serves as the Editor-in-Chief for the journal Geophysical Research Letters. He is also serves on the Executive Committee of CUAHSI, the Consortium for the Advancement of Hydrological Sciences, Inc.

Prof. Famiglietti holds a B.S. in Geology from Tufts University, an M.S. in Hydrology from the University of Arizona, and an M.A. and a Ph.D. in Civil Engineering from Princeton University. He completed his postdoctoral studies in hydrology and climate system modeling at Princeton and at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Wednesday, Sept 26
Fitzpatrick Center (CIEMAS), Schiciano Auditorium (Side B)
12:30-1:30

Toward the characterization of snowpack from space-borne satellite measurements: A multi-frequency multi-scale data assimilation approach
Steve Margulis
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles

Co-sponsored with the Civil and Environmental Engineering seminar series.

The cryosphere represents an important component of the Earth system, with 30% of the overall global land surface covered seasonally by snow (which greatly impacts surface albedo and hence surface energy partitioning) and one-sixth of the global population living in areas where streamflow is dominated by snowmelt runoff (which in some cases makes up more than 75% of the annual water supply). Hence the ability to accurately characterize the snowpack state over large regions has significant implications for weather, climate, and water resources planning. Traditionally, snow water equivalent (SWE) estimation by water agencies has been done using data from snow surveys (performed at select locations in space and periodically during the winter months) in conjunction with regressions based on the historical record. These methods can be inaccurate due to sampling problems and the fact that regression-based schemes are suspect in the context of a changing climate. In the last couple of decades researchers have begun exploring the ability to map snowpack states using space-borne remote sensing measurements. These efforts generally include techniques to either map the presence/absence of snow or retrieve the snow water equivalent. These techniques generally do not provide the desired quantity (SWE) at the necessary resolution and accuracy over large scales. Here we discuss recent work aimed at attempting to assess the feasibility of estimating snowpack characteristics in mountainous terrain by merging remote sensing data spanning the electromagnetic spectrum from the visible to the microwave with process models describing the evolution of the distributed snowpack and its associated radiative transfer. Some future implications of the work include improved lead-time water supply forecasts as well as initial conditions in seasonal climate forecasts.

Thursday, Oct 25
A-158 LSRC
4:00pm-5:15pm

Changing views of a changing Arctic: Climate, element cycling, and vegetation in northern Alaska since the 1970s
Gus Shaver
Senior Scientist, The Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory

Perspectives on the regulation of arctic tundra ecosystems have changed dramatically over the past 35 years, as research has focused increasingly on responses to climate change and long-term controls over species composition and element cycling. Long-term experimental manipulations of temperature, light, and soil nutrients frequently lead to changes that would not be predicted from short-term studies of individual species or ecosystem processes. This talk will describe how nitrogen limitation and species composition interact to determine long-term changes in tundra carbon cycles, and feedbacks to global climate change.

Gaius (Gus) Shaver received a Ph.D. in Botany from Duke University in 1976, after completing Bachelor's and Master's degrees at Stanford in 1972. Since 1979 he has worked at The Ecosystems Center of the Marine Biological Laboratory, in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, where he is now a Senior Scientist. Gus was introduced to the Arctic while a graduate student at Duke, where he completed a dissertation on root growth in cold, wet, tundra soils under the supervision of W.D. Billings. Since leaving Duke most of his research has focused on arctic ecosystems and on the role of plants in tundra element cycles. This work includes the analysis of responses to long-term field experiments at the Arctic LTER site at Toolik Lake, Alaska, the development of models of multiple resource limitation in vegetation and ecosystems, and a growing interest in interaction of the PanArctic region with the global climate system.

Thursday, Nov 29
A-158 LSRC
4:00pm-5:15pm

Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation: Science meets policy
Ruth DeFries
Professor, Department of Geography and Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park

Consideration of carbon credits to developing countries for averted deforestation is high on the policy agenda. The underpinnings for such policies rest on technical capabilities to estimate and monitor carbon emissions. Changing dynamics of deforestation in some parts of the tropics towards mechanized, large-scale production challenges current methods to estimate emissions. The presentation will discuss scientific uncertainties in estimating deforestation emissions and new approaches to modeling carbon fluxes using a variety of remotely-sensed data inputs. The presentation will focus on two spatial scales, a state-level effort to improve modeling capabilities to estimate deforestation fluxes and a pan-tropical effort to identify hotspots contributing disproportionately high emissions.

Ruth DeFries' research investigates the relationships among human transformation of the land surface and the biogeochemical and ecological processes that regulate the Earth's habitability. The research uses satellite imagery as a lens to examine changes in the land surface over large areas. The overall thrust of the research is to develop underlying science for balancing the needs of human society to transform the landscape for food production, settlements and other requirements while maintaining long-term habitability of the planet.

Ruth DeFries holds a PhD from Johns Hopkins University and BA summa cum laude from Washington University. She is a member of the US National Academy of Sciences and a fellow of the MacArthur Foundation and the Aldo Leopold Leadership Program.

Thursday, Dec 6
A-247 LSRC
3:00pm-4:15pm

Macroecology: Do mechanisms matter?
John Harte
Professor, Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley

Maximization of information entropy, S = -SUM(p log(p)), subject to known constraints on the probability distribution p, yields the least biased, or most likely, probability distribution subject to those constraints. In statistical physics, this powerful inference method yields, under the constraint of energy and particle number conservation, classical thermodynamics. Here we apply this method to ecology, starting with logically necessary constraints formed from ratios of four state variables: total area of an ecosystem, total number of species within a taxonomic grouping, total number of individuals across those species, and total metabolic energy required by all those individuals. Entropy maximization under these constraints yields realistic expressions for all the major biodiversity metrics widely used in macroecology, including the Fisher log-series species-abundance distribution, the species-level spatial abundance distributions, the species-area relationship, the distribution of allocated metabolic energy across individuals, and if metabolic theory of ecology is assumed, the Damuth mass-abundance relationship and the energy-equivalence rule. Using plant census data for testing purposes, the theory predicts, with no adjustable parameters, the central tendencies, both within and across sites and spatial scales, of all these macroecological metrics.

John Harte is a Professor of Ecosystem Sciences at the University of California, Berkeley. Following undergraduate studies at Harvard and a doctoral degree in Physics from the University of Wisconsin, he was an NSF Postdoctoral Fellow at CERN, Geneva and an Assistant Professor of Physics at Yale. He is the recipient of a Pew Scholars Prize in Conservation and the Environment, a Guggenheim Fellowship, the 2001 Leo Szilard prize from the American Physical Society, the 2004 UC Berkeley Graduate Mentorship Award, a Miller Professorship, and is a co-recipient of the 2006 George Polk award in journalism. He is an elected Fellow of the California Academy of Sciences and the American Physical Society. He has also served on six National Academy of Sciences Committees and has authored over 180 scientific publications, including six books. One of those books, "Consider a Spherical Cow" is a widely used textbook on environmental modeling.

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SPRING 2007

Friday, Jan 12
A-247 LSRC
1:15-2:30 pm

Variability in air-sea CO2 flux in the Ross Sea, Antarctica: An ecosystem model analysis
Kevin Arrigo
Associate Professor of Geophysics, Stanford University

Co-sponsored with the Duke University Program in Ecology

Phytoplankton dynamics, primary production, and air-sea CO2 exchange in the Ross Sea, Antarctica over a six-year period (1997-2003) were investigated using a combination of satellite remote sensing and numerical ecosystem modeling. Sea ice cover in the Ross Sea was highly variable during this time, with three years exhibiting a normal springtime retreat of the annual sea ice and three years exhibiting very heavy ice cover, particularly 2002-03. Annual net primary production (NPP) during normal ice years ranged from 141-180 g C m-2 yr-1, dropping to 27.3-96.2 g C m-2 yr-1 during heavy ice years. The prymnesiophyte Phaeocystis antarctica was the phytoplankton taxa responsible for the bulk of the annual NPP, although diatoms increased in relative importance during heavy ice years. Reductions in surface water pCO2 due to phytoplankton CO2 fixation during spring and summer, and the return of the annual sea ice in the autumn and winter (thus restricting gas exchange) made the Ross Sea a net sink for atmospheric CO2. The magnitude of the annual net flux of CO2 (FCO2) into the Ross Sea varied >20-fold between years, from -0.07 mol C m-2 in 2002-03 to -1.55 mol C m-2 in 1999-00 (negative values denote flux from air to sea). In some regions, annual FCO2 was as high as -2.9 mol C m-2, with daily rates approaching -62 mmol m-2 d-1. These results rank the Ross Sea as one of the stronger ocean sinks for atmospheric CO2 and demonstrate the sensitivity of FCO2 in polar waters to changes in sea ice cover.

As a biological oceanographer, my principal interest has been in the role marine microalgae play in biogeochemical cycling, with particular emphasis on the scales of temporal and spatial variability of microalgal biomass and productivity. This knowledge is essential to understanding how anthropogenic and atmospheric forcing controls the biogenic flux of CO2 into the oceans, and ultimately, to the sediments. My research is highly interdisciplinary and incorporates three fundamental approaches, (1) satellite remote sensing, (2) ecophysiological modeling, and (3) laboratory and field studies. By combining these techniques, it is possible to address many complex aspects of ocean biogeochemistry at spatial and temporal scales that would not be possible using a single approach.

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Friday, Jan 26
A-247 LSRC
12:00-1:15 pm

What's new at the Ecological Society of America?
Clifford Duke
Director, Science Office, Ecological Society of America

In this informal seminar, Dr. Duke will discuss new science initiatives and programs at ESA.

Dr. Duke joined the Ecological Society of America (ESA) as Director of Science Programs in January 2003. The Science Office originated with ESA's Sustainable Biosphere Initiative in 1992, and focuses on the application of ecological science to environmental problem solving. To that end, the Office works with ESA members, other professional societies, and public agencies to develop workshops and publications on a variety of topics related to ecosystem sustainability, global change and biodiversity.

Before coming to ESA, Dr. Duke worked for 13 years in environmental consulting, managing preparation of environmental impact statements and ecological risk assessments for Department of Defense and Department of Energy facilities nationwide. He also contributed to a variety of transportation projects, from the environmental impact statement for the breakup of the Conrail railroad, to the planning of a bicycle trail in Washington, DC. Most recently, Dr. Duke ran the Arlington office of The Environmental Company, Inc., a firm headquartered in Charlottesville, VA.

Trained as a marine ecologist, Dr. Duke received his Ph.D. in Botany from Duke University, studying with Dr. Joseph Ramus at Duke University Marine Laboratory. Duke also obtained an M.A. in Public Policy Science from Duke University's Institute of Public Policy. Following his graduate studies, he held postdoctoral positions at Northeastern University, Wellesley College, and the Harvard School of Public Health, before moving into the consulting field. In addition to his BOSC service, Dr. Duke currently serves on the Sustainable Rangelands Roundtable and the Board of Directors of the Chesapeake Potomac Regional Chapter of the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry. He is also an active member of a number of other professional societies, including the Society for Risk Analysis and the National Association of Environmental Professionals.

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Tuesday, Feb 13
A-158 LSRC
4:00-5:15 pm

Impacts of Changing Land Use on Subsurface Water Resources in Semiarid Regions
Bridget Scanlon
Bureau of Economic Geology, Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas, Austin

Co-sponsored with the Department of Marine, Earth, & Atmospheric Sciences, NC State

The most widespread changes in land use have occurred because of agricultural expansion. In the past 300 years, cultivated cropland and pastureland have increased globally by 560% and 660%, respectively. Irrigated agriculture has expanded by 580% since 1900 and is projected to increase by 20% by 2030 in developing countries Agricultural food production accounts for ~85% of global fresh water consumption, led by irrigated agriculture. What impacts have these land-use changes had on water resources? Measurements of pressure head, soil pore water chemistry, groundwater levels, and groundwater quality provide an archive of system response to past land-use changes. The presentation will focus on the Texas Southern High Plains, which is one of the largest agricultural areas in the United States. Cultivation of natural grasslands has changed the system from discharging through evapotranspiration since Pleistocene times (~10,000 to 15,000 yr) to recharging during the past 50 to 100 yr. Recharge under rain-fed agriculture is shown by large groundwater-level rises (average 7 m over 3,400 km2 area of rain-fed agriculture) during the last few decades, resulting in a median recharge rate of 21 mm/yr (5% of precipitation). Changes from discharge to recharge conditions reflect long fallow periods (~7 months/yr) associated with cultivation. Recharge under irrigated agriculture is shown by downward hydraulic head gradients. Large groundwater-level declines (as much as 75 m) under irrigated areas indicate that irrigated agriculture is not sustainable. Results from land-use changes in this region will be compared with those from other regions globally. Although past land-use changes had unintended impacts on the water cycle, a comprehensive understanding of these impacts could be used to alter land-use practices for better management of water resources.

Bridget Scanlon received a B.S. in Geology at Trinity College, Dublin (Ireland), an M.S. at the University of Alabama, and a Ph.D. from the University of Kentucky (Lexington). She is currently a Senior Research Scientist at the Bureau of Economic Geology, the Jackson School of Geosciences. The primary objective of her research group is to assess sustainability issues with respect to water resources, within the context of climate variability and land-use change. Studies integrate physical, chemical, and isotopic analyses and numerical modeling. Much of her research focuses on groundwater recharge in semiarid regions in natural and cultivated ecosystems. Bridget Scanlon has taught Vadose Zone Hydrology at the Dept. of Geological Sciences and Civil Engineering at UT. She participated in focus groups on global recharge issues within the IAEA. She served on NAS committees on radioactive waste disposal and is currently serving on the Integrated Observations on Hydrologic Sciences committee.

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Thursday, Mar 8
A-158 LSRC
4:00-5:15 pm

Climate Change 2007: Key findings of the Intergovernmental panel on climate change
Gabi Hegerl
Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University

Recently, the results of Working Group 1 of the Fourth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have been approved and the Summary for Policymakers has been released.

This report assessed scientific findings from the last 6 years on observed climate change and predictions of future changes. It concluded that warming of the climate system is unequivocal. Based on statistical studies attributing observed changes to causes, for example, increases in greenhouse gases or natural variability, the report concluded that most of the global warming over the second half of the 20th century has very likely been due to greenhouse gas increases, and that evidence for human influences now extends to a wider range of climate variables. We now better understand the sensitivity of the climate system to radiative forcing like greenhouse gas increases, and can give a "likely" range for future global mean temperature changes for different emission paths. Projections of changes in rainfall are now highlighted in the Summary for Policymakers. However, projections of sea level rise do not account for rapid dynamical changes in ice flow, since a scientific basis for estimates is lacking.

The main area of Gabi Hegerl's research is the natural variability of climate and changes in climate due to natural and anthropogenic changes in radiative forcing (such as greenhouse warming, climate effects of volcanic eruptions and changes in solar radiation). Studying global scale surface temperature observations shows that the 20th century temperature evolution is highly unusual relative to estimates of climate variability, and that greenhouse gas forcing is likely responsible for a large fraction of the 20th century warming. Gabi and collegues are still looking into narrowing uncertainties in that assessment (such as study the effect of uncertainties in model simulations of climate change, and assess if temperature variability of the last millenium is consistent with our interpretation of climate of the 20th century). However, for society changes in more regional aspects of climate and changes in climatic extremes and rainfall have potentially a stronger impact. Gabi is therefore studying changes in climate extremes in climate model simulations and tries to detect them in observations. Other interests include detecting continental scale climate change in temperature and rainfall data, climate variability, particularly variability that influences climate on long timescales, and changes in modes of climate variability such as the Northern and Southern Annular modes (also called AO and AAO) and their influence on temperature, rainfall and climate extremes. Gabi is also involved in the preparation of the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report as a coordinating lead author, in the CCSP report on changes in climate extremes, and serves in various committees (e. g. CLIVAR, NRC)

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Thursday, Mar 22
NESCent, 2024 W. Main Street, Suite A200
4:00 pm

Climate and plants in California: Past, present, and future
David Ackerly
Associate Professor, Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley

Co-sponsored with the National Evolutionary Synthesis Center (NESCent)

The California Floristic Province, a global biodiversity hotspot, contains more than 5500 native plant taxa, and over half of these are endemic to the region. The flora is composed of disparate elements derived from temperate, desert and sub-tropical origins, combined with extensive diversification during the onset of the modern mediterranean-type climate. The evolution of sclerophyllous leaves among woody chaparral species has often been considered a classic case of convergent evolution, but phylogenetic analysis indicates that this trait is ancestral in many lineages, predating the onset of the current Mediterranean-type climate. Leaf and seed traits differ among taxa derived from contrasting biogeographic regions, reflecting the imprint of history on the functional diversity of the modern flora. A phylogenetic analysis of climatic niche distributions will be presented, relating modern distributions to evolutionary and biogeographic history.

With anticipated climate change, up to 69% of the endemic taxa are projected to experience reductions in range size of >80% within a century. Projected impacts depend on the magnitude of future emissions and on the ability of species to disperse. Unexpectedly, California's varied terrain could cause species to move in very different directions, breaking up present-day floras. Potential refugia, harboring species undergoing severe range reductions, are sometimes but not always coincident with areas of high diversity. Protecting future refugia and facilitating species dispersal will be essential to maintain biodiversity in the face of climate change.

David Ackerly is currently an Associate Professor in the Department of Integrative Biology at the University of California Berkeley. A native of New England, he conducted his Ph.D. and post-doctoral research at Harvard University, including fieldwork in Brazil, Mexico, New England and Japan. Prior to his current position, he was an Assistant Professor at Stanford University. Ackerly's research focuses on the ecology and evolution of plant functional traits, including canopy architecture, leaf physiology, hydraulic architecture and seed size. He is particularly interested in the integration of comparative ecology with phylogenetics and community ecology. Current projects in Ackerly's lab include studies on niche evolution and community assembly in vernal pools, variation in flammability in chaparral shrubs, and the potential impacts of climate change on the flora of California. Ackerly's teaching includes courses in Plant Ecology, Introduction to Ecology, Phylogenetics and Comparative Methods, and Experimental Design.

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Friday, Mar 30
A-247 LSRC
1:15-2:30 pm

Is carbon cycle science ready for the financial big leagues?
Steve Running
Professor/Director, Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group, College of Forestry & Conservation, University of Montana

Co-sponsored with the Duke University Program in Ecology

Study of the terrestrial carbon cycle has progressed substantially in the last 30 years, with field gas exchange measurements, FACE facilities, integrated biogeochemical modeling of carbon-water-nitrogen cycles, atmospheric inversion modeling, and satellite-driven global biophysical datasets. Meanwhile, societal interest in carbon sequestration and biofuels - issues bounded by ecosystem carbon cycles - is accelerating dramatically. Ecologists now have much more theory, data, models, and integration than 30 years ago, but the amount of money poised to be spent on "carbon cycle components" as financial commodities is immense and daunting. Is our science advanced enough, are our measurements precise enough, and are our projections accurate enough to make trillion dollar social decisions? (Conversely, are our methods and results any worse than the economic models and measurements that currently run our country?) This talk will describe the development of terrestrical carbon-cycle ecology, discuss its current measurement and modeling uncertainties, and speculate on its future applications in the global carbon market.

Steven W. Running is trained as a terrestrial ecologist, receiving the B.S. (1972) and M.S. (1973) degrees from Oregon State University, and the Ph.D. (1979) degree in Forest Ecology from Colorado State University. He has been with the University of Montana, Missoula, since 1979, where he is a Professor of Ecology. His primary research interest is the development of global and regional ecosystem biogeochemical models by integration of remote sensing with climatology and terrestrial ecology. He is a Team Member for the NASA Earth Observing System, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and is responsible for the EOS global terrestrial net primary production and evaporative index datasets. He has published over 240 scientific articles. He currently serves on the standing Committee for Earth Studies of the National Research Council, and on the federal Interagency Carbon Cycle Science Committee. He is a Co-Chair of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model Land Working Group, a Member of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program Executive Committee, and the World Climate Research Program, Global Terrestrial Observing System. Dr. Running is a chapter Lead Author for the 4th Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Prof. Running is an elected Fellow of the American Geophysical Union and is designated a Highly Cited Researcher by the Institute for Scientific Information.

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Thursday, Apr 5
A-158 LSRC
4:00-5:15 pm

The late quaternary paleoenvironments of the South American tropics
Edgardo M. Latrubesse
Professor of Geomorphology at the Institute of Soils and Geomorphology of the Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Argentina, and Researcher for CONICET (National Council of Research of Argentina).

Co-sponsored with the Nicholas School Earth & Ocean Sciences Division, & Center for Latin American and Caribbean Studies, Duke University

In this seminar we present results on the impact of global changes on the tropical areas of South American during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene. Recent research on fluvial and aeolian deposits, vertebrate paleontology, palynology, together with geomorphologic studies demonstrates that the tropics of South America suffered drastic climatic, palaeogeographic and plaeoecologic changes during the Late Pleistocene.

The best record of fluvial deposits in the large basins is related to the Middle Pleniglacial (~55-28 ka) when more torrential deposits were in general deposited along all the sub-continent. Climate was characterized by highly seasonal rainfall indicating that a climatic deterioration begun before to the Upper Pleniglacial. Also, widespread eolian dune fields generated in the South American tropical areas such as the Amazon basin, the Orinoco Llanos and probably in the Chaco area of Bolivia. Giant longitudinal dunes up to 100 km length were also recorded in the southern part of the continent, specifically in the Pampean plains of Argentina.

The Upper Pleniglacial (28-14ka) is characterized by the scarcity of fluvial data. Apparently low discharges and dissection were the fluvial response to the climatic changes during the Last Glacial Maximum. Aeolian activity continues to spread on the large South American plains.

A recuperation of fluvial activity is noted during the Lateglacial (14-10ka). Well developed terraces with fine sediments are frequent in tropical rivers and the recuperation of tropical rainforest happened at this time. The Holocene is marked by minor climatic variations and the late Pleistocene-Holocene limit is not clearly identified in the fluvial record. A main climatic change is produced by the Hypsitermal of the late early-middle Holocene but it s not clearly recorded along the lowlands of tropical South America.

Youngest climatic oscillations are produced to 3,5 and ~1 ky. In the lowlands of middle latitudes but not in the tropical lowlands the LIA was also detected.

Professor E. Latrubesse is one of the most prominent and widely published geomorphologists in South America. At present he is Professor of Geomorphology at the Institute of Soils and Geomorphology of the Universidad Nacional de La Plata and Researcher of the CONICET (National Council of Research of Argentina). Over the past 16 years, he has conducted fieldwork on the Quaternary geomorphology of the Amazon, the Pampean region, the Bolivian Altiplano, the Cerrado region (Brazilian savannas), and the Chaco and Llanos del Orinoco (Venezuela). Dr. Latrubesse has chaired several national and international projects. He has conducted research on some of the largest rivers in South America, including the Amazon, the Negro, Madeira, Purus, Juruá, Araguaia-Tocantins, Paraná, Paraguay and São Francisco.

In applied research, Dr. Latrubesse has maintained multidisciplinary activities with specialists in ecology, geography and engineering, focusing on direct applications in the management of fluvial systems by undertaking consultancies on the Madeira, Sao Francisco (Brazil), Araguaia and Apure Rivers (Venezuela) and acted as consultant of UNPD-ONU, OAS, Geological Survey of Brazil and others for the largest Ecologic and Socio-Economic zoning projects of Brazil as expert in Geomorphology.

Dr. Latrubesse was elected member on the International Association of Geomorphologists (IAG) executive committee (2001-2005) and was member and co-founder of the Brazilian Union of Geomorphologists (UGB). He has been chair of the Working Group on Large Rivers (Global Commission on Continental Paleohydrology - GLOCOPH) since 1995. He has been a member of the Working Group on Large Rivers of the IAG since 1997, and is currently co-leader with D. Bridgland (UK) and R. Sinha (India) of the UNESCO Project IGCP 518 (Fluvial Sequences as Evidence for Landscape and Climatic Evolution in the Late Cenozoic, 2005 - onwards). Dr. Latrubesse currently sits on the editorial boards of Geomorphology, Paleoecology of Africa, Revista Brasileira de Geomorfologia and Acta Scientiarium. For his research on the human impacts on the large South American fluvial systems, Edgardo Latrubesse was the winner in 2005 of the International Prize Augusto Gonzalez de Linares offered in Spain to recognize centers or individuals of Spain and Latin America devoted to environmental studies.

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Wednesday, Apr 11
John Hope Franklin Center, Rm. 240
12:00-1:00 pm

Global Warming: Some Science and Solutions
Rob Jackon
Director, Duke Center on Global Change, and Professor, Department of Biology and Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University

A luncheon seminar in conjunction with Wednesdays at the Center seminar series

Video of Rob Jackson's talk (327 Mb, QuickTime format)

For this talk, we will examine some of the scientific evidence for global warming.  We will then discuss some of the environmental consequences and possible solutions, including various ongoing efforts at Duke that contribute to those efforts.

Rob Jackson is Professor of Biology and Director of the Center on Global Change at Duke University.  His special research involves Biogeoscience, with focus on global carbon cycles and climate change research.  He currently leads the Department of Energy's Southeastern Regional Center of the National Institute for Climate Change Research, housed in the Center on Global Change.  As Director of the Center on Global Change, Jackson also is a collaborating principle investigator in the Climate Change Policy Partnership, a multi-year partnership with the Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, and energy industry directors to address problems of global climate change.

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Thursday, Apr 19
Love Auditorium, Rm. B101 LSRC
4:00 pm

followed by a reception in the Hall of Science

Agricultural intensification in the Yaqui Valley, Mexico: will it spare land for nature?
Pam Matson
Dean of the School of Earth Sciences and Professor of Environmental Studies, Stanford University

The 2007 Henry J. Oosting Memorial Lecture, sponsored in conjustion with the Department of Biology.

Our group studies biogeochemical and ecological processes in forest and agricultural systems. In particular, much of our research focuses on the effects of land use change and other human caused changes on biogeochemical processes and trace gas exchanges in tropical ecosystems. Our research in the Yaqui Valley has dove-tailed with writing and policy work on issues of sustainability. As a member of the National Research Council’s Board on Sustainable Development, I used the Yaqui Valley as one of several case studies that argue for the need for “place-based integrative analysis” – understanding the dynamics and forces of change in the integrated social biophysical systems.

Pamela Matson is the Richard and Rhoda Goldman Professor of Environmental Studies in the Department of Geological and Environmental Sciences. She received a B.S. in biology from the University of Wisconsin in 1975, a M.S. in environmental science from Indiana University in 1980, and a Ph.D. in forest ecology from Oregon State University in 1983. Until 1993, she was a research scientist at NASA/Ames Research Center. From 1993-1997, she was a professor of ecosystem ecology at the University of California, Berkeley. She was elected to the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 1992 and to the National Academy of Sciences in 1994. In 1995, Dr. Matson was selected as a MacArthur Fellow, and in 1997 was elected a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. She currently serves as Past-President of the Ecological Society of America. In 2002 she was named the Burton and Deedee McMurtry University Fellow in Undergraduate Education at Stanford. Pamela Matson was appointed Chester Naramore Dean of the School of Earth Sciences in December 2002.

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Friday, Apr 27
A-247 LSRC
1:15-2:30 pm

The influence of tree species on biogeochemistry: Interactions among litter chemistry, earthworms and microbes
Sarah Hobbie
Associate Professor, Dept. of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior, University of Minnesota

Co-sponsored with the Duke University Program in Ecology

Although it is well-established that plant species can have differing effects on carbon and nitrogen cycling through litter because of interspecific variation in litter chemistry, the influence of plant species on soil carbon and nitrogen pools and their dynamics is less clear. Nevertheless, understanding how species influence soil organic matter dynamics is important to predicting how soil carbon sequestration and fertility will respond to management decisions and as well as global environmental changes that alter plant species composition across the landscape. In collaboration with Polish and US scientists, Dr. Hobbie studied the effects of tree species on leaf litter and soil organic matter decomposition in a common garden experiment of fourteen tree species in southwestern Poland. Tree species influenced microbial decomposition via differences in litter lignin, with high-lignin species decomposing more slowly. However, forest floor decay rates estimated from mass balance were positively related to leaf litter Ca (and unrelated to decay rates obtained using litter bags). Litter Ca was positively related, in turn, to the abundance of earthworms, particularly Lumbricus terrestris. Thus, apparently because of earthworm activity, differences among species in litter Ca, rather than litter lignin or N, are most important in determining species effects on leaf litter dynamics among these fourteen tree species. Soil organic matter decomposition and microbial biomass were also related to soil cation status: they were significantly negatively related to concentrations of exchangeable Al+Fe, likely because these cations stabilize SOM via cation bridging and flocculation and because of potentially toxic effects of Al on decomposers. Together, our results indicate that these tree species significantly influence litter and SOM dynamics, primarily through their effects on soil cation biogeochemistry. These species effects could be important in other poorly buffered systems dominated by tree species that differ in cation nutrition, and our results provide insights into systems experiencing invasion by Lumbricus terrestris or acidic deposition.

Dr. Hobbie graduated from Carleton College with a BA in biology in 1986, earned her PhD with Terry Chapin at UC-Berkeley in 1995, and received an NSF post-doctoral fellowship to work with Peter Vitousek at Stanford University. She is currently an Associate Professor and Director of Graduate Admissions in the Department of Ecology, Evolution and Behavior at the University of Minnesota. My current research is focused on understanding i) the nature of nutrient limitation of decomposition, ii) interactions among elevated CO2, nitrogen inputs, biodiversity and precipitation in model grassland communities, iii) the causes and ecosystem-level consequences of variation in calcium nutrition among temperate tree species, and iii) the patterns of biogeochemical fluxes through urban households. Dr. Hobbie is involved in research at both the Cedar Creek and Arctic LTER sites, and currently has funding for her research through NSF's CAREER, Biocomplexity, LTER, and Ecosystems Studies programs.

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Thursday, May 3
A-158 LSRC
4:00-5:15 pm

Global Warming and Water Availability
Christopher Milly
Research hydrologist, U. S. Geological Survey

Some of the basic physical processes that relate global warming to changes in water availability are accessible to the layperson: warm air can hold more water vapor than cool air, and ice melts when heated above a critical temperature. The higher water content of a warmer atmosphere implies changes in atmospheric transport of water to and from a given region, with direct consequences for surface runoff and groundwater recharge. The decreasing prevalence of ice and snow in a warmer world has fundamental implications for seasonal storage of water, for response of soil to precipitation, and for sea level.

The foregoing considerations lead to the admittedly vague prediction that a warmer world is a world in which water availability differs from that of a cooler world. Approximate quantitative expressions of this prediction have been produced by a series of increasingly complex global climate models over a period of many years. However, the water-availability predictions differ from one model to the next, and they depend on uncertain projections of human activities. Furthermore, global climate models address mainly physical processes and tend to ignore various biological and chemical feedbacks of potential importance (e.g., changes in plant structure and functioning, changes in soil carbon balance). Accordingly, skepticism toward projections of changing water availability is not inappropriate.

The projections of the most recent generation of climate models differ even in the direction of change of mean annual runoff (i.e., tendency toward wetter vs. drier conditions) in many regions. Nevertheless, the global pattern of projected change is broadly consistent across most models. Furthermore, the global pattern of multi-decadal trends in streamflow that was observed during the 20th Century bears a striking similarity to the average pattern simulated by the climate models forced by estimated historical drivers of climate (both anthropogenic and natural). This similarity appears too great to be explained readily by chance, but seems rather to indicate that the models have predictive skill for estimating future water-availability trends. The more robust projections of these same models driven only by possible anthropogenic forcings for the 21st Century imply decreasing water availability in southwestern North America, the Mediterranean region, and southern Africa, and increasing water availability in high-latitude North America and Eurasia, the La Plata basin of South America, eastern equatorial Africa, and Indonesia. In general, regions of projected decreasing water supply tend to be regions of contemporary water-supply stress, and regions of projected increasing supply tend to be regions where water shortage is not a major issue for water managers.

Dr. Milly is a research hydrologist with the U. S. Geological Survey and is stationed at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, NJ. He studies the relation between climate and continental water. His publications have addressed dynamics of water and energy in the subsurface boundary layer of the earth; controls on continental water balance; numerical modeling of global land water and energy balances; hydrologic forcing of geophysical processes such as sea-level rise, gravity transients, and earth deformation; and global hydroclimatic change.

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FALL 2006

Thursday, Sept 14
Old Chemistry Rm 116
4:20 pm

Note: new time and location!

Ocean Wave and Tidal Energy Conversion
Roger Bedard
Ocean Energy Leader, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Palo Alto, California

Wave and tidal energy conversion are technologies whose time has come. Following extensive technology development over the past decade, primarily in Europe, North American electricity stakeholders are now becoming interested in applications of this technology. EPRI has conducted techno economic feasibility studies of wave and tidal energy over the past few years. These studies have had a significant impact. In June 2006, the first U.S. commercial wave energy project was announced, and a permit application filed with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Within two months of completing the North America Tidal In Stream Energy Conversion (TISEC) feasibility study in May 2006, private investors have filed approximately 30 permit applications with FERC for commercial plants. In Nova Scotia, a multimillion pilot tidal plant was announced by Nova Scotia Power for the Minas Passage in the Upper Bay of Fundy. This presentation will summarize the energy resource, the energy conversion technology status, and the performance, cost and economics of preliminary Wave and Tidal power plant designs in various locations in North America. Grid interconnection, environmental and regulatory issues will also be described as will current wave and tidal projects in process, both in North America and worldwide.

Mr. Roger Bedard currently is Ocean Energy Leader at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) in Palo Alto, California. He has over 40 years of experience developing and leading technology research, development and demonstration projects. He led a collaborative wave energy conversion technology feasibility study in 2004 with state energy agencies and utilities in Maine, Massachusetts, Northern California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii. Mr. Bedard also led a collaborative in stream tidal energy conversion technology feasibility study in 2005 for state energy agencies and utilities in New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Maine, Massachusetts, Alaska, Washington and California.

Prior to joining EPRI, Mr. Bedard was Vice President at Alstom Robotics where he managed custom robotic projects for nuclear waste cleanup; at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory he managed the Mars Rover, the Army unmanned land vehicle technology programs and point focus distributed receiver solar thermal electric technology programs; and at Acurex he managed rocket nozzle materials characterization, torsion meter and point focus distributed receiver solar thermal electric technology programs. As an active duty Air Force Officer at the AF Rocket Propulsion Laboratory, he managed solid rocket propulsion technology programs.

Mr. Bedard has a BS in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Rhode Island, a MS in Mechanical Engineering from the University of Southern California, an Electrical Engineering degree from the National Technical Institute of Electronics and is a graduate of the NASA Senior Management Education Program and a distinguished graduate of the Air Force Officers Training School.

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Thursday, Sept 28
A-158 LSRC
4:00 - 5:15pm

Spatial and temporal controls of carbon cycling in arid and semiarid ecosystems
Osvaldo E. Sala
Sloan Lindemann Professor of Biology and Director, Environmental Change Initiative; Director, Center for Environmental Studies, Brown University

The overall objective of this talk is to discuss patterns and controls of carbon cycling in arid and semiarid ecosystems through time and space and at different spatial scales from the region to the patch-scale. First the talk will describe large-scale patterns of primary production for the region of the Central Plains of the US and identify its major controls. The spatial controls will be contrasted with the controls of primary production through time. The talk will postulate hypotheses for the differences between spatial and temporal controls and will describe manipulative field experiments that addressed the hypotheses. The concept of lags in the ecosystem response to increases in water availability would be central to understanding the differences between spatial and temporal models. At a more detailed scale, the talk will describe spatial patterns of production and decomposition for a site in the Patagonian steppe. The relationship between vegetation spatial patterns and the rates of production and decomposition suggest the relative importance of the controls of production and decomposition. The talk concludes, with suggestions about the changes in the relative importance of controls of ecosystem processes with scale, from the region to the patch.

Dr. Osvaldo Sala is the Sloan Lindemann Professor of Biology at Brown University, where he serves as director of the Environmental Chance Initiative and of the Center for Environmental Studies. He is also the Andrew D. White Professor-at Large from Cornell University. Dr. Sala's expertise in ecology extends from the arid ecosystems of Patagonia to global change issues, including carbon cycle questions, ecosystem-water dynamics, biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, and biodiversity scenarios. His current research projects involve ecosystems and places as diverse as the Chihuahuan Desert in New Mexico and the Harvard Forest in Western Massachusetts. With more than 140 peer-reviewed publications, Dr. Sala is president of the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment, and a current member of the Science Council, The Nature Conservancy. Dr. Sala is an elected member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Argentinean National Academy of Sciences, and the Argentinean National Academy of Physical and Natural Sciences.

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Friday, Oct 27
A-247 LSRC
1:15 - 2:30pm

Co-Sponsored with the Duke University Program in Ecology

The manner and magnitude by which trees impact the hydrological cycle
Todd E. Dawson
Center for Stable Isotope Biogeochemistry & the Departments of Integrative Biology and Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California - Berkeley

There is now ample evidence that plants can exert a very significant and often dominant "control" over the nature by which water cycles through diverse ecosystems on Earth (Lee et al. 2005, Gedney et al. 2006). The diverse manner by which water loss from plant canopies occurs as well as the nature of water uptake and redistribution of soil water by deep root systems happens are two primary ways plants impact the hydrological cycle (Dawson and Ehleringer 1998, Jackson et al. 2000, Feddes et al. 2001). When these functional behaviors are measured in relation to land-use and/or climatic changes that in turn modify the vegetation there are fundamental changes in how water cycles that are linked to plants (Dawson et al. in review). For more than a decade my research group has developed and used a range of methods to study above- and below-ground water flux in a diversity tree species inhabiting temperate and tropical biomes with the objective of enhancing our understanding of their role in hydrological processes. In addition, collaborative research has incorporated tree water use behavior into atmospheric general circulation models to estimate plant impacts on the magnitude and manner by which water moves through the landscape and on the climate itself over areas such as the Amazon basin and temperate evergreen and deciduous forests. This empirical and modeling research shows that plants can help sustain water recycling that in turn has important impacts on other biogeochemical cycles, on climate, and on the seasonality of water (and carbon) fluxes thereby establishing a direct link between plant functioning, water movement on the globe and the climate system.

Todd E. Dawson is a professor in the Departments of Integrative Biology and Environmental Science, Policy and Management at UC Berkeley. He received his PhD in Plant Biology and Ecology from the University of Washington. For the last 15 years his research has focused on the ecology and physiology of woody plants in diverse environmental contexts. Dawson's research has addressed topics such as the evolution of functional adaptations in response to drought in trees, the ecophysiology of plant water use in trees and shrubs, and biological and physical controls over plant response to naturally and anthropogenically imposed environments. He directs the Center for Stable Isotope Biogeochemistry at UC Berkeley that provides education, training and research opportunities for Berkeley students and visitors who want to incorporate isotope approaches and analyses into their research. Dawson is also the director of the Biogeosphere-Atmosphere Stable Isotope Network (BASIN), an NSF-sponsored program, now in its second phase, this is focused on the use of stable isotopes in land-use and global change research with particular emphasis on the hydrological cycle. He is also a member of several societies committed to advancing the fields of ecology, environmental science and sustainable solutions to forest and agricultural practices.

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Friday, Nov 3
A-247 LSRC
1:15 - 2:30pm

Co-Sponsored with the Duke University Program in Ecology

Sunshine, waterbugs and real estate: unique controls on litter decomposition in arid ecosystems
Amy Austin
Research Scientist, University of Buenos Aires and IFEVA, Argentina

Controls on decomposition and nutrient turnover in arid ecosystems are elusive, as many studies of litter decomposition have shown contradictory results and little correlation with annual precipitation or pulsed rainfall events. At the same time, the difference between inputs and losses of carbon will ultimately determine the carbon balance of these ecosystems that currently occupy nearly 40% of the terrestrial land surface. Predictions of litter decomposition based on rainfall often underestimate mass loss in deserts; standard litter quality indices such as lignin or nitrogen rarely correlate with decomposition. These conflicting results inspired a series of descriptive and manipulative experiments in natural ecosystems of Patagonia, Argentina, where we attempted to evaluate if there are unique controls affecting litter decomposition in "water-limited" ecosystems. Typical of arid and semiarid ecosystems is the patchy distribution of vegetation, which results in large amounts of standing dead material and exposed bare soil areas. The well-documented “islands of fertility” from shrub patches also contribute to variability in soil resource availability and microclimatic conditions, all factors that could be important in affecting litter decomposition. We found that direct effects of solar radiation and location are fundamental controls on mass loss of aboveground litter, and the predominance of abiotic over biotic factors affecting carbon turnover suggest that traditional models of carbon cycling developed for temperate mesic forests may not apply to these ecosystems. In addition, global change effects such as changes in cloudiness or vegetative cover may be more important in impacting carbon turnover in these ecosystems than elevated temperature or altered precipitation regimes.

Amy Austin is a research scientist and lecturer at the University of Buenos Aires and the CONICET research institute of IFEVA, Argentina. Her research interests are focused in the area of terrestrial ecosystem ecology, particularly related to abiotic and biotic controls on ecosystem processes. She completed her undergraduate degree in environmental sciences at Willamette University and her doctoral degree with Peter Vitousek at Stanford University, working in Hawaiian forest ecosystems. Starting with a NSF postdoctoral fellowship to work in Patagonia, over the last several years she has been exploring a number of questions related to the effects of water availability on carbon and nutrient turnover in undisturbed natural ecosystems of southern temperate Argentina, ranging from xeric shrublands to southern beech forests. One area of active research is how 'water-limited' are arid and semiarid ecosystems - are there factors other than water availability which are important in controlling carbon and nitrogen turnover? In addition, she is very interested in how vegetation generates spatial heterogeneity of carbon and nutrient resources in both grassland and forest sites and the consequences for belowground processes. She also continues to explore the use of stable isotopes, particularly the natural abundance of 15N, as a way to elucidate the integrated ecosystem response to changes in water, temperature and land use change. For a list of publications and more information on her research: http://www.agro.uba.ar/users/austin/

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Tuesday, Nov 28
A-158 LSRC
4:00 - 5:15pm

Using micrometeorological techniques to determine the impact of land use change on "Green water": Examples from South Africa
Caren Jarmain
Ecophysiology research group, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Pretoria, South Africa

Accurate total evaporation estimates are required when assessing the impact of different land uses on the water balance and the availability of water in streams. The provisions of the National Water Act of South Africa (1998) require water resource managers to assess whether different land-uses within a catchment or exchanges thereof, are likely to reduce the quantity and temporal availability of water to downstream users. Such decisions need to be based on the relative annual and seasonal water use (total evaporation) of existing and proposed crops or vegetation and how these affect river flows. Although commercial forest plantations are currently the only legislated Stream Flow Reduction Activity (SFRAs) within South Africa, a wide range of agricultural crops and baseline vegetation may have to be considered as SFRAs.

The recently defined "Green Water" concept recommends that SFRA assessments be simplified by focusing on monitoring the evaporation from different land uses, rather than the flow in rivers as such. This has particular relevance to the emerging concept of "exchange ratios" in which water use is considered in terms of changing land use from one crop to another (e.g. from forestry to sugarcane). The difference in water use between the land use types then becomes particularly critical, especially with regards to SFRA licensing issues. Apart from SFRAs other key water resource management applications in South Africa also require accurate estimates of total evaporation, e.g. where ground water recharge is considered, as part of irrigation scheduling, mine water management (specifically pollution containment and acid mine drainage), industrial land rehabilitation and ecosystem management.

An overview is given of (1) studies pioneering micrometeorological and other techniques to ensure accurate estimates of total evaporation which meet the precision requirements set by water resources managers, and (2) applications of micrometeorological and other related techniques to different water resources applications to determine the impact of land use change on total evaporation ("green water").

Caren Jarmain is currently part of the Ecophysiology research group within the CSIR. Their research involves 1) Estimating the impact of land use of hydrology, focussing specifically on the total evaporation ("green water") component, 2) Pioneering techniques for estimating total evaporation, 3) Application of Remote sensing data for water resources management in South Africa, and 4) Application of micrometeorological techniques to compliment air pollution modeling. Other research interests include: Plant-soil-water relationships of natural veld types of South Africa (indigenous vegetation) vs. invading species, agricultural crops, commercial forestry species, etc.; Advances in Micrometeorological and other methods (including methods based on remote sensing data) used to estimate total evaporation; and Biogenic volatile organic carbon estimates as an input to regional air pollution modeling. Dr. Jarmain received a B.Sc. Agric Hons. (1998) in Agrometerology from the University of the Orange Free State, South Africa, and a M.Sc (1999) and Ph.D.(2003) in Agrometerology from the University of Natal, South Africa.

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Friday, Dec 1
A-247 LSRC
1:15 - 2:30pm

Co-Sponsored with the Duke University Program in Ecology

The challenge of representing nitrogen cycling in global biogeochemical models
Lars Hedin
Professor of Terrestrial Biogeochemistry, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University

Nutrient feedbacks in land ecosystems represent one of the greatest sources of uncertainty in global carbon cycle over the next half century.  In this seminar, I will address some of the difficulties of incorporating a dynamic nitrogen cycle in terrestrial biogeochemical models.  By using empirical studies and theoretical considerations, I will discuss the need to capture a set of key processes that act over time to determine how nitrogen cycles develop across broad geographical regions.  I will specifically consider the role of hydrology, plant nutritional strategies, and climate in shaping the terrestrial nitrogen cycle.

Dr. Lars Hedin is a professor in Terrestrial Biogeochemistry at Princeton University.  For over 15 years his research has focused on how diverse forested ecosystems depend on nutrients and nutrient cycles.  His contributions include studies of atmospheric dust and acid rain in forests, thermodynamics and nitrogen cycling in riparian wetlands, the development of nutrient cycles over geological time, and the role of nutrients in plant competition and community assembly.  His current work includes analysis of plant strategies in the context of complex adaptive systems that change functionally across climate and biomes.  Dr. Hedin is the recipient of the Mercer Award from the Ecological Society of America for his work on using pristine South American forests as a “baseline” for understanding pre-industrial nutrient cycles.  He is the founder of the biogeosciences section of the Ecological Society of America and recently chaired a white paper report on “Challenges to Linking Ecological Biology and Geosciences.”

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SPRING 2006

Tuesday Jan 17
A158 LSRC
4:00 - 5:15

Taking your story to the next level
Julie Wakefield
CGC Science Writer in Residence, 16-21 January, 2006

Whether you're interested in writing your first book or having a journalist tell your story or would just like to reach a broader audience, learning more about the seemingly arbitrary and even nefarious world of science writing and publishing can help to build your communications platform.

Author and journalist Julie Wakefield will share her insights on everything from developing relationships with the media to getting an agent and a book contract to the importance of educating the public about your research. Getting your name and work out there may also help in securing a bigger seat for scientists like yourself at the policymaking table. Her talk will address some of the natural tensions that arise with academia when endeavors are undertaken to popularize science for a general audience. She also will discuss some of the latest trends in science writing, such as the creative nonfiction rage and the proliferation of blogs.

The Joseph Henry Press, a trade imprint of the National Academies Press, published Wakefield's first book Halley's Quest: A Selfless Genius and His Troubled Paramore, in fall 2005. The nonfiction narrative reveals the life of Edmond Halley of comet fame through his sea adventures undertaken more than 300 years ago aboard Her Majesty's Ship, the Pink Paramore. The work establishes Halley as the father of geophysics and more.

Wakefield's writing has been published in such general interest publications as Smithsonian, The Washintonian, and Washington City Paper. She has also written for Scientific American, New Scientist, and Wired, among others.

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Thursday Jan 19
A158 LSRC
4:00 - 5:15

Ecosystem consequences of insect defoliation in the Appalachians
Philip A. Townsend
Department of Forest Ecology and Management, University of Wisconsin-Madison

While the effects of major forest disturbances such as logging, fire or hurricanes can be readily observed and measured, most natural forest disturbances are in fact: (1) ubiquitous, (2) transient, (3) highly variable in extent, frequency, and intensity, and (4) often "stealthy" and poorly documented in both spatial and temporal dimensions. The impacts on ecosystem processes of such disturbances such as periodic insect defoliation are likewise poorly characterized. We have used remote sensing and field measurements to characterize the impacts of gypsy moth defoliation on forest and watershed nutrient dynamics in the Central Appalachians. We demonstrate that remote sensing based measures of forest disturbance can be used to accurately predict nitrogen export from watersheds (R2 > 0.7). Remotely> sensed estimations of foliar biomass loss are reliable within 500 kg/ha/yr total biomass. The analyses show nitrogen loss due to defoliation can surpass 30 kg/ha/yr.

Phil Townsend is an Associate Professor in the Department of Forest Ecology and Management at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He was previously on the faculty at the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Appalachian Laboratory, and received his Ph.D. in 1997 from the University of North Carolina. His research interests center on watershed hydrology and forest dynamics, and in particular with the application of remote sensing and the modeling of environmental processes to assess fluxes of water, sediments and nutrients from forested and mixed-use watersheds, as well as wetlands. His work emphasizes linkages between ecosystem function (nitrogen and carbon cycling), plant community dynamics, watershed hydrology and landscape ecology. Major tools of the work include remote sensing and GIS as integrated with field measurements. Dr. Townsend's major research projects involve studies of ecosystem dynamics (N and C cycling) and ecohydrological impacts associated with insect defoliation in the Central Appalachian Mountains and Upper Midwest, testing and validation of new remote sensing technologies for application to ecosystem and community studies, examination of relationships between sedimentation and changes in flooding on ecological processes on floodplains, and predictive modeling of species distributions and patterns. This research has been funded by NASA, NSF, The Nature Conservancy, EPA, USGS, USDA and the US Forest Service.

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Thursday February 9
A158 LSRC
4:00 - 5:15

The Role of Dry-Season Orographic Precipitation in the Cloud Forests of Monteverde, Costa Rica
Andrew Guswa
Picker Engineering Program, Smith College

Monteverde, Costa Rica harbors montane forests that exemplify the delicate balances among climate, hydrology, habitat, and development. Most of the annual precipitation to this region arrives during the wet season, but the importance of orographic precipitation during the dry and transitional seasons should not be underestimated. A boom in ecotourism has put significant stress on water resources, and recent work has shown evidence that changes in regional land-cover and global climate may lead to reduced precipitation and cloud cover and a subsequent decline in endemic species. The potential for reduced supply, the reality of increased demand, and the effect on ecosystem function requires a better understanding of the role of orographic precipitation during the dry and transitional seasons.

During the dry and transitional seasons (November through April), the trade winds bring moist air up the Atlantic slope, and the interception of fog, mist, and wind-blown rain by forest vegetation can provide a significant hydrologic input. Previous investigations in Monteverde have had some success in quantifying the contribution of cloud-water interception to the hydrologic budget. Our work complements and builds upon these efforts by focusing on understanding the contribution of precipitation as a function of season and condensation mechanism rather than as a function of deposition mechanism. We seek to understand how precipitation from the drier seasons propagates through the hydrologic cycle.

From 2003-2005, we collected precipitation and streamflow samples to determine the abundance of oxygen-18 and deuterium, quantified as the deviation from Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water. These stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen can serve as conservative tracers of liquid water, and their relative proportion (as characterized by deuterium excess) can be used to determine the contribution of evaporation from land to precipitation and surface waters.

On the leeward slope of Monteverde, we observe seasonal signals in d18O, dD, and d-excess of precipitation. d18O and dD are heaviest during the dry and transitional seasons and light during the rainy season, consistent with the condensation mechanisms and degree of rainout typical of these periods. The signal in d-excess indicates a contribution of recycled water to precipitation in Monteverde from late in the rainy season through the dry season. Attenuated versions of these seasonal signals propagate through to the stream samples and provide a means of determining the importance of dry-season precipitation to water resources for the region. Results from six catchments on the leeward slope indicate that local topography exerts strong control on the input of orographic precipitation to the region. Watersheds in close proximity to the Brillante Gap in the continental divide show evidence of significant contributions of dry-season precipitation to streamflow. Baseflow in catchments downslope show negligible contributions of precipitation from the drier seasons. Discrepancies in the temporal variability of isotopic composition in precipitation and streamflow indicate complex hydrologic transport processes in the headwater catchments.

In 2001, Drew Guswa joined the faculty at Smith College to help launch the Picker Engineering Program - the first engineering program at an all-women's college. As a civil and environmental engineer, he views his research as an opportunity to make manifest his commitment to the environment through continually acquiring engineering and analytical skills and applying them to new challenges. The overarching goal of his work is to improve our understanding and representation of hydrologic processes to facilitate informed decision-making. He is particularly interested in the interactions between one's predictive goals and tolerance for uncertainty, and one's characterization of the spatial and temporal variability of model parameters and representation of the physical processes. Recent areas of research include the ecohydrology of water-limited ecosystems and an investigation of the role of dry-season precipitation in the tropical montane cloud forests of Monteverde, Costa Rica. Guswa is a member of the American Society of Civil Engineers and the American Geophysical Union. He and his wife, Sue (Duke class of 1994), are enthusiastic fans of Duke basketball.

Selected Publications

  • Guswa, Andrew J., 2005. Soil-moisture limits on plant uptake: An upscaled relationship for water-limited ecosystems, Advances in Water Resources, 28 (6), 543-552.
  • Rhodes, A. L., A. J. Guswa, and S. E. Newell, in press. Using stable isotopes to identify orographic precipitation events in Monteverde, Costa Rica. In: Bruijnzeel, L.A., Juvik, J., Scatena, F. N., Hamilton, L. S., and Bubb, P. (eds.), Forests in the Mist: Science for Conservation and Management of Tropical Montane Cloud Forests, University of Hawaii Press.
  • Guswa, Andrew J., M. A. Celia, and I. Rodriguez-Iturbe, 2002. Models of soilmoisture dynamics in ecohydrology: A comparative study, Water Resources Research, 38 (9).
  • Guswa, Andrew J., and D. L. Freyberg, 2002. On using the equivalent conductivity to describe solute spreading in geologic environments with lowpermeability lenses, Water Resources Research, 38 (8).

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Thursday February 23
A158 LSRC
4:00 - 5:15

McMurdo dry valleys long-term ecological research: The response of Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems to climate change
W. Berry Lyons
Director of the Byrd Polar Research Center, Ohio State University

The McMurdo Dry Valleys (MCM) at ~78 degrees S Lat are the largest expanse of ice-free area on the Continent. The landscape is a mosaic of glaciers, bedrock, soils, ephemeral streams and ice-covered lakes. These valleys have been the location of an NSF supported Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) site since 1993, and are termed polar desert ecosystems. The primary focus region of the MCM-LTER is Taylor Valley which has a mean annual temperature of ~ -20 degrees C. The role of climate variation has been important in influencing overall ecosystem development and function. Small variations in temperature, albedo, etc. have great ecological consequences. Small changes in climatic parameters are amplified through the change of state of H2O. The production, transport and accumulation of liquid water is the key to the overall understanding of how the ecosystem works. I will review the 12 years of data from MCM-LTER and describe the linkages between climate change, the hydrologic cycle and ecosystem dynamics in this environment. This coupling between meteorology, hydrology and biology is very tight and is critical to our prediction of how these ecosystems will respond to future change.

W. Berry Lyons earned a bachelors degree in geology from Brown University and has MS and PhD degrees in chemical oceanography from the University of Connecticut. He has held faculty positions at the University of New Hampshire, University of Nevada, Reno, the University of Alabama (where he held the Loper Chair in Environmental Geology) and is currently a Professor in the Geological Sciences Department at the Ohio State University. He is also the Director of the Byrd Polar Research Center at OSU and is the lead PI of the McMurdo Dry Valleys Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) project. His current research interests include the relationship between chemical and physical weathering, the role of agricultural activities and urbanization on water quality, the global mercury (Hg) cycle and polar biogeochemistry.

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Thursday March 2
A158 LSRC
4:00 - 5:15

Disturbance and Invasive Species in Tropical Rain Forests: New Ecological Insights from Remote Sensing
Gregory P. Asner
Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution, Stanford University

The world of airborne and satellite remote sensing is changing fast, and today's capabilities far exceed those of just a decade ago. Remote sensing can support assessments of ecosystem services by offering a means to scale field-based measurements from local to regional levels. Current technologies from Earth orbit are limited in capability, but advances in analysis methods are providing new regional information in the areas of forest structure and disturbance. Current airborne remote sensing approaches are far more capable than space-based technologies, and include detailed assessments of ecosystem carbon stocks, fire fuel loads, invasive species and biological diversity. This presentation will show how the sciences of remote sensing and biogeochemistry can come together to better understand a range of terrestrial ecosystem processes in the context of conservation, management and policy.

Greg Asner is a faculty member in the Department of Global Ecology at the Carnegie Institution located at Stanford University. His scientific interests center on how human activities alter the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems. Dr. Asner combines field studies, airborne and satellite remote sensing, and computer simulation models to address ecological phenomena related to land use, carbon cycling and climate change. His remote sensing efforts center on the use of new technologies for studies of vegetation structure and chemistry in the context of conservation and management, biogeochemistry, and the carbon cycle. Greg focuses much of his attention on tropical forests and rangeland ecosystems.

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Thursday March 23
A158 LSRC
4:00 - 5:15

Earth System Modeling at the Intersection of Science and Policy
Hiram Levy II
Senior Research Scientist at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

After a short discussion of climate change issues and Earth System Modeling, I will focus on 2 topics:
1. Mineral dust, air pollution, soluble/bioavailable iron and ocean biogeochemistry;
2. Methane - two for the price of one and recent concentration trends.

Dr. Hiram (Chip) Levy received a Ph.D. in Chemistry from Harvard University in 1966. After post-doctoral work in theoretical chemistry at Massachusetts Institute of Technology and working as a Research Scientist in atomic and molecular physics at the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, he joined the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in 1973. He has been a government scientist since 1975, a Senior Research Scientist since 1998, and is Leader of the Biospheric Processes Group studying the interactions and feedback of the earth's biosphere with its climate and assessing the impact of natural variability and past, present, and future human activities. Dr. Levy has been a visiting Professor at the University of Michigan and the University of Iowa. He has written or co-authored more than 70 papers on global change, atmospheric chemistry and atomic and molecular physics. He has served on numerous National Academy of Sciences panels, as an Editor of EOS and as an Associate Editor for the Journal of Geophysical Research. He is also a Lecturer in the Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Program at Princeton University, where he has taught Atmospheric Chemistry since 1987. He was named a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union in 1998.

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Friday April 21
A148 LSRC (conference room)
11:30am - 12:30pm

A Moral Climate? The Ethics of Global Warming
Michael Northcott is visiting Duke and will talk about his new book on the ethics of climate change:

A Moral Climate? The Ethics of Global Warming, London: Darton, Longman and Todd, 2006, by Michael Northcott.

From Noah to Newton human beings believed that their actions affected the climate. But Isaac Newton with his mechanistic account of physical laws trained moderns to believe the cosmos was no longer a moral place. With the advent of the new discipline of biogeochemistry, riding as it does on Lovelock's Gaia hypothesis, humans are again learning that there is a relationship between their behaviours and the climate. However they are learning this at the same time as embracing liberal economic and moral philosophies which train them to believe that there are no limits to self expression, and that personal preferences - rational and emotional - are the key drivers of moral action as well as economic behaviour. The threat of climate change therefore presents a challenge both to post-Newtonian cosmology and to the moral climate of modern liberalism. Narrating the science of climate change is not therefore sufficient as a public policy response. Equally important is the recognition of the biophysical limits of liberalism, and efforts to resituate descriptions of human morality in cosmological narratives, including those of the major religious traditions.

Michael Northcott is Reader in Christian Ethics in the University of Edinburgh and a priest in the Scottish Episcopal Church. He serves as Associate Rector at St James', Leith and he is also a Canon Theologian of Liverpool Cathedral. In the 1980s he was a USPG sponsored mission priest in West Malaysia where he was lecturer in the Seminari Theologi Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur, and before that he served in the Diocese of Manchester. He speaks and writes widely on ethics and current affairs. His book Life After Debt: Christianity and Global Justice (London: SPCK, 1999) explores the ethics of international debt and trade justice, and his book An Angel Directs the Storm: Apocalyptic Religion and American Empire (London: I. B. Tauris, 2004) examines the moral implications of the war on terror. He is currently working on the ethics of climate change. His forthcoming book in this area is entitled The Moral Climate: The Ethics of Global Warming (London: Darton, Longman and Todd, 2006).

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Friday May 19
A148 LSRC (conference room)
4:00 - 5:15 pm

Water vapour and carbon dioxide fluxes from pine forest
Dr. John B. Stewart
University of Southampton, Department of Geography

Description of the background to the setting up of the Thetford Forest Project - replacement of sheep grazing by forests in reservoir water-sheds and some evidence that runoff from forests less than from grasslands in UK. Controversersy between Howard Penman and Jack Rutter about factors controlling evaporation. Uncertainities resolved by micrometeorological study - description of measurements/data acquisition/modelling. Measurements and analysis of carbon dioxide fluxes. Relevance to climate change.

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FALL 2005

Thursday Sept 8
A158 LSRC
4:00 - 5:15

C and N cycling in grasslands of Argentina and Uruguay: livestock introduction and its consequences
Gervasio Piñeiro, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina
project researchers:
Gervasio Piñeiro(1); J.M. Paruelo (1); M.O. Oesterheld (1); E.O. Jobbagy (2); R.B. Jackson (3