Phone: (919) 613-8116
Email: m.kenney@duke.edu
Advisor: K.H. Reckhow
Personal Website: http://www.duke.edu/~mak22

Area of concentration: Water Quality Modeling and Decision Analysis

Education:

• Duke University, Durham, NC. Doctor of Philosophy Student, Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Division of Environmental Science and Policy. Degree expected May 2007.
• University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA. Bachelor of Arts with Distinction awarded May 2002. Major in Environmental Sciences.

Dissertation Research:
Which nutrient criteria should States and Tribes choose to determine waterbody impairment?: Using science and judgments to inform policymaking

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) considers over 25,000 of the waters in the United States impaired.  Of these waterbody impairments, one of the top four pollutants is eutrophication.  Eutrophication is fueled by excess nitrogen and phosphorous and causes problems such as anoxia, noxious algal blooms, and fish kills.  To protect the nation’s waterbodies from excessive impairments, Sections 101(a) and 303(c) of the Clean Water Act require states to establish water quality standards.

Water quality standards are set using a qualitative designated use and a quantitative criterion.  The criterion is a numeric measure that serves as a scientific surrogate for the designated use.  The designated use is a narrative statement that describes the water quality goal.  The water quality standards are designed to protect the designated use; however, they are indirectly measured and assessed using the water quality criterion. 
Currently, the EPA is encouraging states to adopt nutrient criteria.  By nutrient criteria, EPA means any measurable water quality variable or variables that can be used to detect eutrophication impairments (i.e. phosphorous, algae, water clarity, etc.) and the associated criteria level.  As a result, many states are asking: Which nutrient criteria should they choose?  There is not a single best answer, which has lead to much debate about what method should be used to establish these standards.

For my dissertation, I am developing a method for establishing nutrient criteria that are predictive of a waterbody’s goals, or designated uses.  Specifically, my research addresses the EPA’s national nutrient strategy, which requires states to protect designated uses by establishing eutrophication-related water quality criteria.  As a demonstration of our method, I am assisting North Carolina in reassessing their nutrient standards for lakes and reservoirs.

My novel method of nutrient criteria selection uses two methods: (1) predictive nutrient criteria, and (2) nutrient criteria utility analysis.  The predictive nutrient criteria method is a procedure to statistically link water quality variables with the designated use.  Since there is no existing method for determining whether a waterbody is meeting its designated uses, such as swimmable or fishable, judgments are needed to help understand what characteristics of a lake lead to designated use attainment. Using an expert’s judgments, coupled with water quality data, I will develop a statistical model, using structural equation modeling, that links eutrophication and designated use attainment.  The statistical model provides the variable(s) that are most predictive of designated use attainment.

After discovering which water quality variables are predictive of designated use, I will use the nutrient criteria utility analysis method to assess decision makers’ tradeoffs between maximizing environmental protection and minimizing cost.  After assessing the utility functions for several decision makers, I will be able to analytically integrate the probability of use attainment, for a given criterion level, with the decision makers’ utility functions. This procedure allows me to separate the science from policymaking judgments and provide criteria levels for the predictive criteria.
Finally, by combining the two methods, I will be able to give the decision makers the candidate water quality variables and criteria levels; a decision maker may then choose the nutrient criteria that maximize their utility.  I will apply the method to lakes and reservoirs in North Carolina; however, this method could be applied to any type of waterbody in any region of the United States. Ultimately, I hope that my dissertation will improve water quality standards by establishing a methodology that is adopted by state agencies and the EPA to set nutrient criteria.

Selected Publications and Presentations:

Reckhow, K.H., G.B. Arhonditsis, M.A. Kenney, L. Hauser, J. Tribo, C. Wu, L.J. Steinberg, C. A. Stow, S. J. McBride. (2005) A Predictive Approach to Nutrient Criteria. Environmental Science and Technology.  39(9): 2913-2919.

Arhonditsis, G.B., C.A. Stow, L.J. Steinberg, M.A. Kenney, R.C. Lathrop, S.J. McBride, and K.H. Reckhow. (2006) Exploring Ecological Patterns with Structural Equation Modeling and Bayesian Analysis. Ecological Modelling.  192: 385-409.

Kenney, M.A. and M.A. White. (in press) A Cost-Benefit Model for Evaluating Remediation Alternatives at Superfund Sites Incorporating the Value of Ecosystem Services. Reclaiming the Land: Rethinking Superfund Institutions, Methods, and Practices. G. Macey and J. Cannon, eds.

Sutton-Grier, A.E. and M.A. Kenney. (2005) Recruiters and Academia: A Class Act. Nature. 436: 886.

Reckhow, K.H., G.B. Arhonditsis, M.A. Kenney, S. J. McBride, R.J. Gosnell, C.A. Stow, and H.W. Paerl. (in press) Water Quality Indicators: Nutrient Impacts on Chlorophyll or Algae Species Composition. Water Environment Research Federation. Report 02-ECO-1. pp. 79.

Kenney, M.A. (2002) Development of a Value-Based Model to Provide Options for Reuse of Superfund Sites. University of Virginia Department of Environmental Sciences Distinguished Majors Program Thesis.

Kenney, M.A. (2006) North Carolina Nutrient Criteria and the Reservoir Protection Act. Invited presenter for the North Carolina Water Resources Association. Raleigh, NC. 

Kenney, M.A., K.H. Reckhow, C.A. Stow and R.T. Clemen. (2006) Selection of water quality variables for nutrient criteria using structural equation modeling.  Presented and Presided at Ecological Society of America Conference. Memphis, TN. 

Kenney, M.A. and K.H. Reckhow. (2004) Predictive Approach to Nutrient Criteria. Presented at American Water Resources Association Conference. Orlando, FL.

Selected Grants and Fellowships Received:

Kenney, M.A. (2006-2007) Which Nutrient Criteria Should States and Tribes Choose to Determine Water Body Impairment? Using Science and Judgment to Inform Decision-Making. Funding from National Water Resources Institute. Awarded $10,000.

Kenney, M.A., K.H. Reckhow, and G.B. Arhonditsis. (2005-2006) Evaluating Eutrophication-Related Water Quality Parameters in North Carolina Lakes and Reservoirs. Funding from North Carolina Department of
Environment and Natural Resources, Division of Water Quality. Awarded $45,000.

Kenney, M.A. (2003-2004) Development of Teaching Assistant Support Materials and Training Workshop for the Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences. Funding from Duke University Center for Teaching, Learning, and Writing. Awarded $2,000.