Research Associate/Instructor

Geospatial Analysis Program
Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences
Duke University
A224 Levine Sciences Research Center
Box 90238, Durham, NC 27708-0328
Ph: (919)613-8718

I arrived at the Nicholas School in the fall of 2005. I currently split my time between teaching some of the GIS courses here and doing various research projects using spatial analysis. My current research generally focuses on developing tools that identify and map the delivery of ecosystem services under alternative management scenarios.

Prior to arriving at the Nicholas School, I spent 8 years at Stanford University's Center for Conservation Biology working on projects ranging from ecological reserve design in Madagascar and Mexico, to mapping butterfly habitat in central Nevada, to creating tools to inventory and map species ranges.

Before Stanford, I was an instructor/research analyst in GIS at the University of Michigan's School of Natural Resources and Environment, where I also received my masters degree in conservation biology and ecosystem management. My first exposure to GIS, however, was in 1990 when I was an undergraduate at Bowdoin College looking at nitrogen inputs upstream of a local shellfishery that had recently collapsed.

My interest and motivation in the field of GIS flows from the stimulating mix of analysis and creativity it provides. I am deeply interested in exploring different uses of the technology towards better understanding and better managing our natural environment.

Publications (updated September 2007)

Sekercioglu, C.H., S.H. Schneider, J.P. Fay, and S.R. Loarie. In press. Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinctions. Conservation Biology.

Fleishman, E., R. Donnelly, R. Reeves, and J. Fay. 2007. Applications of nestedness analysis to biodiversity conservation in developing landscapes. Landscape and Urban Planning 81:271-281.

Boggs, C.L., C. Holdren, I.G. Kulachi, T.C. Bonebreak, B.D. Inoye, J.P. Fay, A. McMillan, E.H.Williams, and P.R. Ehrlich. Delayed population explosion of an introduced butterfly. Journal of Animal Ecology 75: 466-475.

Ceballos, G., P.R. Ehrlich, J Soberon, I. Salazar, and J.P. Fay. 2005. Global mammal conservation: What must we manage? Science 309(5734): 603-607.

Fleishman, E., J.R. Thomson, R. Mac Nally, D.D. Murphy, and J.P. Fay. 2005. Predicting species richness of multiple taxonomic groups using indicator species and genetic algorithms. Conservation Biology 19:1125–1137.

Seto, K. C., E. Fleishman, J. P. Fay, and C. J. Betrus. 2004. Linking spatial patterns of bird and butterfly species richness with Landsat TM derived NDVI. International Journal of Remote Sensing 25: 4309-4324.

Kremen, C., N. M. Williams, R. L. Bugg, J. P. Fay, and R. W. Thorp. 2004. The area requirements of an ecosystem service: Crop pollination by native bee communities in California. Ecology Letters 7: 1109-1119.

Kremen, Claire, David C. Lees, and John P. Fay. 2003. Butterflies and Conservation Planning in Madagascar: From Pattern to Practice. In Butterflies: Ecology and Evolution Taking Flight Carol L. Boggs, Ward B. Watt, and Paul R Ehrlich, eds.

Niles, John O., Sandra Brown, Jules N. Pretty, Andrew S. Ball and John P. Fay. 2003. Potential carbon mitigation and income in developing countries from changes in use and management of agricultural and forest lands. In Capturing Carbon and Conserving Biodiversity: The Market Approach. Ian R. Swingland, ed.

Niles, John O.; Kremen, Claire; Fay, John P. 2003 A tropical forest meta-analysis: Ecological and conservation findings; Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting Abstracts; v.88, p.252.

Fleishman, Erica; Nally, Ralph Mac; Fay, John P. 2003. Validation tests of predictive models of butterfly occurrence based on environmental variables. Conservation Biology; v.17, no.3, p.806-817.

Mac Nally, R., E. Fleishman, J.P. Fay, and D.D. Murphy. 2003. Modeling butterfly species richness using mesoscale environmental variables: model construction and validation. Biological Conservation; v.110, no.1, p.21-31.

Fleishman, E., R. Mac Nally, J.P. Fay, and D.D. Murphy. 2001. Modeling and predicting species occurrence using broad-scale environmental variables: an example with butterflies of the Great Basin. Conservation Biology; v.15, no.6, p.1674-1685.

Ricketts, T.H., G.C. Daily, P.R. Ehrlich, and J.P. Fay. 2001. Countryside biogeography of moths in a
fragmented landscape: biodiversity in native and agricultural habitats; Conservation Biology 15(2):378-388.

Fleishman, E., J.P. Fay, and D.D. Murphy. 2000. Upsides and downsides: contrasting topographic gradients in species richness and associated scenarios for climate change; Journal of Biogeography 27:1209-1219.

Galindo-Leal, C., S. Weiss, J. Fay, and B. Sandler. 2000. Conservation priorities in the greater Calakmul Region, Mexico: correcting the consequences of a congenital illness; Natural Areas Journal 20(4).

Kremen, C., Niles, J., Dalton, M., Daily, G., Ehrlich, P., Fay, P., Grewal, D. and R. P. Guillery. 2000. Economic incentives for forest conservation across scales. Science. 288:1828-1832.

Sandler B, S. Weiss, J. Fay, E. Martínez, and C. Galindo-Leal. 1999. Deforestation and identification of
vegetation associations in Calakmul Biosphere Reserve in southern Mexico through remote sensing. Final Report to World Wildlife Fund - México, Mexico D.F. 38 pp.

Allan, J. D., D. L. Erickson, and J. P. Fay. 1997. The influence of catchment land use on stream integrity across multiple spatial scales. Freshwater Biology 37: 149-161.