Institute Activities Related
to Climate Change
climate change and energy overview >
“The U.S. Climate Policy Debate: How Climate Politics are Moving Forward on Capitol Hill and in the White House” -
September 2008
This new policy paper, co-written by Cathleen Kelly, director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States and Tim Profeta, director of the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University, provides a detailed assessment of the status of efforts in the U.S. Senate to design and win support for a mandatory cap-and-trade program and an update on where the climate policy debate stands in the U.S. House of Representatives. The 28-page paper also provides a look at the controversy over the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s role in regulating greenhouse gas emissions, and offers insights into the positions of the U.S. presidential candidates, Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama, on U.S. and international climate policy.
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“Balancing Cost and Emissions Certainty: An Allowance Reserve for Cap-and-Trade” -
August 2008
On efficiency grounds, the economics community has tended to ephasize price-based policies to address climate change -- such as taxes or a "saftey valve" price ceiling for cap-and-trade -- while environmental advocates have sought a more clear, quantitative limit on emissions. This working paper presents a simple modification to the idea of a safety valve: a quantitative limit called an "allowance reserve" which may bridge the gap between these competing interests and potentially improve efficiency relative to tax or other price-based policies.
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“Leakage
from an Avoided Deforestation Compensation Policy: Concepts,
Empirical Evidence, and Corrective Policy Options” -
June 2008
A new working paper by the Nicholas Institute’s Brian Murray offers ideas on how policies now being developed to pay tropical forest countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) can account for and prevent emissions “leakage.”
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“Designing
Offsets Policy for the U.S.” - May 2008
Principles, Challenges, and Options for Encouraging Domestic and International Emissions Reductions and Sequestration from Uncapped Entities as part of a Federal Cap-and-Trade for Greenhouse Gases
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“Greenhouse
Gas Allowance Allocation: Cost Pass-Through, Sector Differentiation
and Economic Implications” - February 2008
One of the most important decisions to resolve in implementing a cap-and-trade system is the question of how emission allowances initially are allocated to participants. As long as allowances can be traded freely, they can, in theory, be allocated to anyone and will find their way through the market to trading-system participants willing to pay for them. They can be given to participants and non-participants, or auctioned to the highest bidders. Because allowances have significant monetary value, decisions regarding allocation methodologies are important for trading-system participants and their customers. This paper provides a framework for policymakers to understand the options regarding allowance allocation and some tradeoffs to consider in choosing among these options.
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“The
Lieberman-Warner America's Climate Security Act: A Preliminary
Assessment of Potential Economic Impacts” - October
2007
On August 2, 2007, Senators Lieberman and Warner introduced a framework for Lieberman-Warner America’s Climate Security Act of 2007. The proposal calls for the United States to cut greenhouse gas emissions below current levels by 2050. Analysts from the Nicholas Institute and RTI International summarize how the actions necessary to meet the requirements of the proposed bill might affect general and specific economic indicators using a model of the U.S. economy.
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"California,
Climate Change, and the Constitution" -
September 2007
Climate change, like many environmental challenges, is a global problem requiring local solutions. While the United States has of yet not passed meaningful legislation that addresses climate change, several U.S. states are taking steps to reduce the carbon footprints of their industries and citizens.
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“A
Path to Greenhouse Gas Reductions in the U.S.: Economic Modeling
of Interim National Targets” - September 2007
Momentum is building in the United States to consider mandatory caps for greenhouse gas emissions. The U.S. Senate has expressed support for such action if it will not cause significant economic harm. Toward that end, this study employs a computable general equilibrium model of the United States integrated into the global economy (ADAGE) and a detailed model of the U.S. energy sector (NI-NEMS) to examine the broad and deep economic implications of interim-term GHG cap-and-trade programs across sectors and regions of the U.S. economy over time. In addition, the paper discusses implications for longer term and deeper cuts.
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“G8
Leadership is Critical to Curbing Energy-Related CO2 Emissions” -
September 2007
The “Heiligendamm Process” conceived at the recent Group of Eight (G8) summit calls for the G8 countries plus the five largest developing nations to negotiate commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to mid-century levels that would avoid dangerous climate change. This analysis demonstrates that commitments from these 13 nations, particularly the United States and China, can be an important first step to keeping atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the “safe zone” below 450 ppm, even with a ten-year lag between developed and developing nations.
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“Size
Thresholds for Greenhouse Gas Regulation: Who Would be Affected
by a 10,000-ton CO2 Emissions Rule?” - September
2007
Opponents of action on climate change have warned that jobs will be lost to a cap and trade system that encompasses small businesses. This report addresses this concern by seeking to identify what type and size of businesses will be, and won’t be, regulated under various legislative proposals that target facilities that emit at least 10,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide or its greenhouse gas equivalent per year. Understanding this will help design policy to assist those who would be most affected.
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“A
New Opportunity to Help Mitigate Climate Change, Save Forests,
and Reach Development Goals” - August 2007
A proposal to include avoided emissions from deforestation in the next phase of the global climate agreements has been moving forward rapidly. This paper provides an overview of the state of this proposal, what its implementation might look like and what this could mean for climate, forests, and nations that might participate. It also provides an discussion of the undecided issues in the proposal and recommendations for next steps to move thing forward.
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“Convenient
Guide for Climate Change Policy and Technology” - August
2007
Scientific consensus, growing public awareness and political change may soon drive the United States to a mandatory climate policy. Fossil fuel-generated electricity accounts for one-third of carbon dioxide emissions in the United States; electric utility companies can therefore provide leadership in technology and policy development through careful investment decisions for future generation capacity. This 420-page guide from the Nicholas Institute and Duke’s Center on Global Change examines technology options for reducing utility-generated greenhouse gas emissions and reviews policies to achieve reductions.
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- EVENT: July 18-19, 2007-- D.C. Symposium Aims to De-mystify
Economic Models
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- Economic Protection Plan for Carbon
Trading Markets - July 2007
A bipartisan group of U.S. Senators considered critical to the passage of legislation to limit U.S. greenhouse gas emissions offered a proposal to reduce costs and provide oversight to the new emissions permit trading market. The plan was developed jointly with the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions of Duke University.
“Data
and Methods to Estimate National Historical Deforestation
Baselines in Support of UNFCCC REDD” - July 2007
Global climate policy initiatives are now being proposed to compensate tropical forest nations for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD). This working paper by a panel of experts from the Nicholas Institute, Conservational International and the University of Wisconsin-Madison reviews existing data and methods that could be used to measure historical deforestation and degradation baselines, including FAO national statistics and various remote-sensing sources, and thus aid in the creation of a credible benchmark against which future emissions reductions can be measured.
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final published version available here >
"Harnessing
Farms and Forests in the Low-Carbon Economy: How to Create,
Measure and Verify Greenhouse Gas Offsets" -
June 2007
As the United States moves to a low-carbon economy to help combat global warming, credits for reducing greenhouse gas emissions will increasingly become a commodity that is bought and sold on the open market. This 229-page guide is the first comprehensive technical manual that explains to farmers, foresters, landowners and investors how they can take part in, and benefit from, this market.
“U.S. Federal Climate Policy and
Competitiveness Concerns: The Limits and Options of International
Trade Law” - April 2007
A working paper by Joost Pauwelyn of Duke Law School. One of the major obstacles toward mandatory limits on greenhouse gas emissions in the United States is the impact of such limits on the international competitiveness of U.S. firms. This 45-paper paper examines the extent to which U.S. federal climate policy could alleviate this competitiveness concern.
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“Carbon
Capture, Pipeline and Storage: A Viable Option for North
Carolina” - March 2007
A working paper prepared by the Nicholas Institute and the Center on Global Change at Duke that examines whether the capture of CO2 emissions from N.C. coal utilities may be economically feasible if the emissions are piped out of state to underground storage reservoirs. The 30-page paper includes lifetime cost analyses for carbon capture through supercritical pulverized coal versus integrated gasification combined cycle technologies.
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- EVENT:
March 5-8, 2007 - Forestry and Agriculture
Greenhouse Gas Modeling Forum
Learn more >
- BEST BUS Model - November 2006
BEST BUS is a decision support model for fleet managers and other transit specialists interested in finding best cost alternatives for reducing fleet emissions, enabling comparisons between current and replacement buses.
BEST BUS was developed by the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions and Dana Lowell from MJ Bradley and Associates for the purposes of evaluating a new bus fleet for trips between Duke University, Durham and UNC-Chapel Hill. The model yielded useful results on this project and offers great potential for other groups interested in exploring the costs and benefits of upgrading buses to new technology.
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- The Robertson
Scholar Program Buses: A cost-benefit analysis of existing
technology and fuel options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions -- September
27, 2006
A closed discussion of experts, Nicholas Institute Staff, and Duke Transportation Staff, reviewed and discussed the outcome of an emissions benefits and costs analysis of new bus technologies for the Robertson Scholar Program Buses and other Duke University buses. The pluses and minuses of running these new bus technologies on the ground will be discussed with experienced fleet managers. The value of the cost-benefit model was considered for other fleet managers making similar decisions on buses. And finally, we explored how a climate policy with a price on greenhouse gas emissions could incentive the adoption of these new bus technologies.
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Do
Recent Scientific Findings Undermine the Climate Benefits
of Carbon Sequestration in Forests? -
April 2006
An Expert Review of Recent Studies on Methane Emissions and Water Tradeoffs
Recent scientific papers document previously unknown or under-reported methane emissions and water trade-offs that could reduce the benefits from terrestrial carbon sink practices such as reforestation and plantations. This Nicholas Institute report examines the policy implications of these findings. The report is a consensus document from a roundtable of top experts convened at the Institute earlier this year. Recent scientific papers document previously unknown or under-reported methane emissions and water trade-offs that could reduce the benefits from terrestrial carbon sink practices such as reforestation and plantations. This Nicholas Institute report examines the policy implications of these findings. The report is a consensus document from a roundtable of top experts convened at the Institute earlier this year.
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read event summary >
more recent papers on methane emssions >
A Cap and Trade System for
Greenhouse Gases - 2005
In a new report for California policymakers, the Nicholas Institute identifies the basic design principles of an effective cap and trade system for regulating greenhouse gas emissions at the state level, with emphasis on principles that promote greater environmental certainty, business certainty, flexibility and administrative ease.
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