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The Affordability of the Proposed National Renewable Standard

by Bill Chameides | May 01, 2009
posted by Erica Rowell (Editor)

Permalink |  Comments (5)
The Affordability of the Proposed National Renewable Standard

Increasing the amount of electricity generated by renewable sources like wind turbines is affordable, energy department numbers show. (Getty Images)

After extensive debate in the House last week, the draft Waxman-Markey climate bill (the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009) is expected to enter the markup (or pin-the-amendment-on-the-bill) stage next week in the Energy and Environment Subcommittee. Even the relatively innocuous renewable electricity standard is expected to be a target.

The draft climate bill that will emerge from the subcommittee markup may be quite different from what went in. Indications are that conservative and moderate Democrats will try to reshape (some might argue water down) the bill, while Republicans will try to go for the jugular and kill — or at least delay — it for another year.

One aspect under attack by moderate and conservative Democrats is the renewable electricity standard. But after reading the government's just-released economic analysis of the impact of the proposed numbers, I have to ask why. Here are some statistics to consider.

Benefit of the Draft Bill's Proposed Renewable Standard Is Significant

Nominal amount of renewable electricity mandated by the draft bill: 25%
Actual amount after efficiency credits and exemptions (such as small retailers, existing hydro and municipal waste) are factored in: 17%

Estimated reduction in carbon emissions from electricity sector in 2030, from standards proposed in draft proposal: between 7 and 12%

Upping Renewable Electricity Production Affordable

How much the average household's current monthly electricity costs is expected to go up or down  under proposed renewable electricity standards versus business as usual

Proposed National Renewable Standard Not Costly
The energy department analyzed two renewable scenarios — one with maximum energy efficiency credits used and one without. The monthly cost difference shown here comes from the most expensive scenario. Based on analysis by the Energy Information Administration http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/acesa/index.html

 A typical U.S. household consumes about 940 kWh per month. http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/ask/electricity_faqs.asp

Democratic Reps Looking to Weaken Proposal

House Democrats who have publicly come out against the proposed 25% renewable standard (note - this list is not comprehensive): Rick Boucher (D-VA), Mike Doyle (D-PA), Charles Gonzalez (D-TX), G.K. Butterfield (D-NC), Charlie Melancon (D-LA), Baron Hill (D-IN), John Dingell (D-MI), Gene Green (D-TX), Mike Ross (D-AR), Jim Matheson (D-UT), John Barrow (D-GA)

 

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Help in watering down the legislation

Posted by Dan at May 04, 2009 08:17 AM
http://blog.heritage.org/[…]/

Not surprising but still relevant to the debate. The issue is squeezed from both political sides, more so from one than the other. Or you can take a Nobel Prize-winning economist's word for it:

http://www.nytimes.com/[…]/01krugman.html?_r=1&ref=opinion

What I do not hear is the discussion of whether the option of making it tax-neutral will debate or happen. I believe people like Al Gore are for an equivalent reduction in payroll taxes, which could have a large (more positive) impact for those lower on the socioeconomic ladder. This addresses two problems, one piggybacking on the other. It tackles that issue while seemingly pacifying the more conservative crowd who fear that the Heritage Foundation's claims (first link) will come true.

Dr. Chameides responds -

Posted by Erica Rowell (Editor) at May 04, 2009 10:16 AM
Dan, Take your pick: predictions that cap-and-trade will be an economic disaster from the Heritage Foundation or no big deal from a Nobel Prize-winning economist.

barriers

Posted by Dan at May 05, 2009 08:23 AM
These types of columns don't help either:

http://www.realclearpolitic[…]inst_oil_and_gas_96324.html

I guess Samuelson is in between these two but still to the right.


So what about a tax-neutral cap-and-trade system, why no discussion on that front it seems?

Dr. Chameides replies -

Posted by Erica Rowell (Editor) at May 05, 2009 04:13 PM
Dan,
1. With regard to the Samuelson column, stayed tuned tomorrow for a commentary.

2. A revenue-neutral cap and trade like a revenue-neutral carbon tax has been under discussion. For example, see http://www.capanddividend.org or http://www.capanddividend.org/?q=node/214 or http://www.capanddividend.org/?q=node/238 or http://www.thebulletin.org/[…]/carbon-tax-vs-cap-and-trade or http://www.carbontax.org/introduction
Of course even with a revenue-neutral form of a cap and trade (or tax) there are still issues that have to be debated and resolved. Specifically, who gets the dividend and how is it apportioned? For example, President Obama wants to use some of the income from auctions of emission allowances to finance a middle-class tax cut. Others want it to be distributed equally to all Americans. And while using the income to finance a health care system would not be "revenue neutral," some might consider it a very apt way to provide a dividend to citizens. As in most cases, the devil is in the details.

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